The paper investigates how AI systems that perform best‑of‑n search require different validation strategies as the search width changes. It shows that auditing only small search widths leaves a gap in reliability estimates for larger widths, and proposes retaining candidate ranks and truth labels to estimate reliability across all widths up to N. The authors derive theoretical bounds on the minimax mean‑squared error, design procedures that achieve these bounds, and demonstrate that a shared audit can significantly reduce maximum error across many widths in practical CodeRM pools.
By Ricardo Fitas
arXiv:2608. 01378v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Design campaigns in chemistry, materials science, and machine learning share a bottleneck: determining how good a candidate truly is requires an expensive evaluation - an experiment, a first-principles simulation, or a full training run.
By Shuangxiu (Max), Ma (Zachary), Wenhe (Zachary), Zhao
arXiv:2610.03321v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Low-rank approximation can require additional matrix--vector products to verify that its error meets a prescribed tolerance. We characterize this cer...
By Kang Liu, Bohao Qu
arXiv:2610.35277v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Embedding-based verification often calibrates a false-accept threshold from all impostor pairs among $m$ identities, although these pairs share identit...
By Salim Khazem
arXiv:2608. 08826v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive procedures must work without nuisance information an oracle may use, such as a gradient scale or smoothness index, and robust procedures may have to answer queries whose coordinate and inspection time are chosen only after the data are seen.
By Ibne Farabi Shihab, Adria Binte Habib
The paper introduces a method to certify selective prediction in machine learning systems by computing the availability of safety gates through exact-binomial inversion and dynamic programming. It demonstrates that a truth-informed planner can significantly improve mean coverage over naive approaches, and that reallocating error budgets further enhances coverage across diverse applications such as LLM tool‑calling, content moderation, lesion classification, and recommendation. The study highlights the importance of planning and finite‑sample estimation in ensuring reliable, granular deployment of selective predictors.
By Parivesh Priye, Yufeng Wang, Haibin Ling, Michael Chaykowsky
The paper introduces a risk‑controlled framework for using large language models (LLMs) as judges in tasks without reference answers. By calibrating uncertainty thresholds on a held‑out set, the method ensures that the false discovery rate of accepted verdicts stays below a user‑specified level α with high probability, using finite‑sample Clopper–Pearson intervals. When the parametric judge lacks confidence, the instance is routed to a retrieval‑augmented mode with a second calibrated threshold, preserving the error guarantee while achieving higher coverage than single‑mode baselines.
arXiv:2608. 06762v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bisimulation metrics quantify behavioral similarity in Markov decision processes, but their Wasserstein fixed-point operator updates every state pair and incurs quadratic pairwise work.
By Ibne Farabi Shihab, Joyanta Jyoti Mondal
The paper evaluates how well typed decision models, which output probability distributions, actually provide reliable guarantees. By comparing open-weight Laya and Jev 1.13 across 190 evaluations, the study finds that point‑estimate thresholds frequently break promised accuracy, while a Beta lower‑bound rule and Learn‑then‑Test approach maintain guarantees more consistently. The work also explores calibration across languages, the impact of noise, data requirements for fine‑tuning, and the limitations of confidence in predicting outcomes or providing faithful explanations.
By Pedro Carvalho Brom
arXiv:2609. 29140v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Repeated evaluation can estimate a benchmark score accurately while still requiring replication to certify narrow uncertainty.
By Yezhou Cheng, Runjia Du, Zeming Liu, Qibai Chen, Hang Lyu, Yilan Wei, Yankai Zeng, Bojun Lin
arXiv:2610.33112v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Use-based AI regulation assigns obligations by deployment risk but lacks an evidentiary object to carry them. A benchmark score is a property of a mode...
By John deVadoss
arXiv:2606. 29054v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) deployed for structured generation (NER, JSON extraction, QA, and classification) lack formal reliability guarantees, and standard heuristic abstention policies miss user-specified risk targets by 7.
By Varun Kotte