arXiv Machine Learning

When May a Model Replace the Experiment? Audits, Licenses, and the Price of Trust in Surrogate-Driven Design

arXiv:2608. 01378v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Design campaigns in chemistry, materials science, and machine learning share a bottleneck: determining how good a candidate truly is requires an expensive evaluation - an experiment, a first-principles simulation, or a full training run.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 15

The geometry of AI validation: From structural blindness to reusable audits

The paper investigates how AI systems that perform best‑of‑n search require different validation strategies as the search width changes. It shows that auditing only small search widths leaves a gap in reliability estimates for larger widths, and proposes retaining candidate ranks and truth labels to estimate reliability across all widths up to N. The authors derive theoretical bounds on the minimax mean‑squared error, design procedures that achieve these bounds, and demonstrate that a shared audit can significantly reduce maximum error across many widths in practical CodeRM pools.

By Ricardo Fitas
arXiv AI
Sep 10

Online Surrogate Repair: Decoupling High-Fidelity Feedback from Search Length in Closed-Loop Discovery

The paper introduces Online Surrogate Repair (OSR), a closed‑loop algorithm that decouples the frequency of high‑fidelity evaluations from the length of an agent’s search by selectively updating a surrogate model with sparse, high‑fidelity data. An acquisition rule determines which candidate designs receive expensive evaluations, and the resulting labels refine the surrogate for subsequent episodes. Experiments on synthetic environments and the MADE benchmark show that OSR can reduce regret more efficiently than fixed‑surrogate approaches, requiring fewer oracle queries than high‑fidelity feedback after every episode.

By Xiaotang Feng, Philip Torr, Bruno Andreis
arXiv AI
Aug 20

Competence, Not Accuracy: A Diagnostic for Reference-Free Judge Gates in Skill Optimization

The paper introduces a diagnostic for reference‑free judge gates in text‑space skill optimization. It formalizes a judge as a latent solver, deriving a closed‑form bound on discriminability (ROC‑AUC) in terms of judge competence and answer‑space size, and shows that discriminability is confounded by item difficulty unless a within‑question estimator is used. A non‑intervening probe demonstrates that discriminability is at chance near the competence floor, rises above it, and that the diagnostic can predict gating errors in closed‑loop experiments.

By Chenle Chen, Yangbo Wei, Chao Yao, Shaoqiang Lu, Junhong Qian, Chen Wu, Lei He
arXiv Machine Learning
22h ago

Scientific Discovery under Validation Congestion via Multi-Fidelity Pairwise Rankings

The paper introduces PRISMS, a framework that uses expert pairwise rankings of varying fidelity to curate scientific designs without relying on data-intensive regression models. By escalating queries from lower- to higher-fidelity rankers based on Fisher-information, PRISMS improves discovery recall and reduces the number of screening rounds compared to regression-only and non‑escalated ranking methods. In optimization tasks, PRISMS outperforms Bayesian optimization by achieving higher hypervolume.

By Kevin Tirta Wijaya, Alston Lo, Michael Sun, Wojciech Matusik, Vahid Babaei
arXiv AI
Jul 14

LLMs as a Jury: Cross-Model Consensus Can Outperform Process Reward Models for LLM Reasoning

arXiv:2607. 10139v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Selecting the correct answer from a pool of candidate reasoning chains is the engine of test-time scaling, yet the standard selectors each carry a cost: self-consistency inherits the errors of the single model it resamples, and trained reward models need labeled data and transfer poorly off-distribution.

By Ning Liu