arXiv:2608. 06262v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Model evaluations may fix all tests before observing any responses or select later tests using earlier responses.
By Zonghuan Xu
arXiv:2607. 26577v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) of Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s and its variants are the standard approach to online conformal prediction under distribution shift, but they suffer from three fundamental limitations.
By Rahul Vaze
arXiv:2610.00424v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Knowing how much a causal predictor could improve need not reveal the gain of the repair actually learned. We quantify this gap in a scalar Gaussian...
By Qinchuan Cheng, Jiaqi Liu, Ruixuan Xie
The paper shows that Worst‑Case Optimal Recovery (OR) and Bayesian learning solve the same Gaussian‑quadratic‑Hilbert problems, linking the radius of information to a nugget‑optimized Gaussian process posterior variance. It evaluates three Bayesian systems, demonstrating that OR can outperform Bayesian methods in certain calibration and reproducibility metrics, yet split‑conformal and other approaches can beat OR in interval scoring, especially under covariate shift. The authors propose matching the guarantee tool to the data regime and auditing that regime first.
By Gordei Verbii
arXiv:2606. 14640v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study Online Convex Optimization (OCO) over a convex set $K\subseteq \mathbb R^d$, where in each round $t$ the learner selects $x_t\in K$ and then observes a convex loss $f_t:K\to[0,1]$, with the goal of minimizing regret to the best fixed decision in hindsight.
By Simone Di Gregorio, Anupam Gupta, Stefano Leonardi, Matteo Russo
arXiv:2606. 14690v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study a \emph{max-risk} objective for active learning in a multi-group mean estimation $d$-armed bandits: a learner adaptively allocates a budget of $T$ samples across $d$ groups to minimize the worst-case uncertainty index $\max_{k\in[d]}\sigma_k^2/n_k$, where $\sigma_k$ is the standard deviation of the distribution of arm $d$, and $n_k$ is the number of times arm $d$ is sampled.
By Abdellah Aznag, Rachel Cummings, Adam N. Elmachtoub