arXiv AI

Is the Future Predictable? Modeling Future Predictability for Reliable Temporal Reasoning

arXiv AI

Jun 10

MemCast: Memory-Driven Time Series Forecasting with Experience-Conditioned Reasoning

arXiv:2602. 03164v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications.

By Xiaoyu Tao, Mingyue Cheng, Ze Guo, Shuo Yu, Yaguo Liu, Qi Liu, Shijin Wang

llms

arXiv AI

Jun 11

Forecasting Future Behavior as a Learning Task

arXiv:2606. 11445v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Trust in an AI system is often anchored by explanations of how it works, which one then uses to forecast its behavior on new inputs.

By Mosh Levy, Yoav Goldberg, Asa Cooper Stickland

llms fine-tuning

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 26

Forecasting With LLMs: Improved Generalization Through Feature Steering

arXiv:2606. 27199v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Successful forecasting involves identifying patterns between historical and future states of the world which generalize to future observations.

By Humzah Merchant, Bradford Levy

llms safety

arXiv AI

Jul 14

PRISM Edit: One Vector for All Temporal Answers

arXiv:2607. 11327v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Model editing keeps large language models (LLMs) up to date without retraining, but temporal facts expose a limitation of the prevailing locate-and-edit paradigm: an update is not always a replacement.

By Chen Huang (Tsinghua University), Qi Zheng (Tsinghua University), Ruiqin Zheng (ByteDance), Long Zeng (Tsinghua University), Yuantong Xu (ByteDance)

llms benchmarks

arXiv AI

Jul 29

Distilling Temporal Search and Reasoning: Evolving LLMs for Future Prediction via Harness-Assisted Efficient Data Synthesis

arXiv:2607. 25554v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Future event prediction carries broad social impact yet remains challenging.

By Wanxu Cai, Zhengyu Chen, Huaisheng Zhu, Wei Wang, Jingang Wang, Qiang Xu

llms agents efficiency benchmarks

arXiv AI

Aug 25

LLM-based Agents for Forecasting and Prediction: Methods, Training, Evaluation, and Applications

arXiv:2608.23058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) now support forecasting systems that combine language-based reasoning with temporal data, evidence retrieval, external too...

By Xiaogang Xu, Jiaqi Tang, Jianmin Chen, Yingying Yan, Zhenchao Tang, Xiangxin Zhou, Xiaobin Hu, Wei Wei, Jinfeng Wu, Qifeng Chen, Lu Zhou, Jiafei Wu, Zhe Liu, Jianwei Yin, Weimin Zheng

llms rag agents benchmarks

arXiv AI

Sep 15

TimeThink: Eliciting Compositional Reasoning in Timeseries Large Language Models

arXiv:2609.13457v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Timeseries multimodal large language models (TS-MLLMs) have recently begun leveraging the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) for qu...

By Sudarshan Regmi, Arvind Pillai, Yu Yvonne Wu, Yuliang Chen, Bibek Panthi, Tess Z. Griffin, Michael V. Heinz, Lisa Marsch, Nicholas C. Jacobson, Andrew Campbell

llms reinforcement-learning multimodal benchmarks

arXiv AI

Oct 19

CastFlow: Bridging Evidence Acquisition and Accurate Prediction in Agentic Time Series Forecasting

CastFlow is a role‑specialized agentic forecasting framework that combines general‑purpose tool reasoning with specialized temporal forecasting. It uses an Experience Memory to guide a frozen LLM in acquiring evidence via a multi‑view toolkit, then a lightweight specialized LLM refines predictions through evidence‑grounded reasoning. The two‑stage training strategy—supervised fine‑tuning followed by reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards—optimizes the specialized model based on final forecasting outcomes, achieving superior performance on nine out of ten real‑world benchmarks.

By Bokai Pan, Mingyue Cheng, Xiaoyu Tao, Zhiding Liu, Shuo Yu, Yuchong Wu, Qi Liu, Defu Lian, Enhong Chen

llms agents reinforcement-learning fine-tuning benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 10

Predicting Future Behaviors in Reasoning Models Enables Better Steering

arXiv:2606. 11172v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deployed large reasoning models (LRMs) often behave unexpectedly.

By Evgenii Kortukov, Piotr Komorowski, Florian Klein, Paula Engl, Gabriele Sarti, Seong Joon Oh, Sebastian Lapuschkin, Wojciech Samek

arXiv AI

Jun 4

Time Series Forecasting as Reasoning: A Slow-Thinking Approach with Reinforced LLMs

arXiv:2506. 10630v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: To advance time series forecasting (TSF), various methods have been proposed to improve prediction accuracy, evolving from statistical techniques to data-driven deep learning architectures.

By Yitong Zhou, Yucong Luo, Mingyue Cheng, Qi Liu, Jiahao Wang, Daoyu Wang, Enhong Chen

llms reinforcement-learning fine-tuning safety

arXiv AI

Oct 1

Alleviating Hallucination in Reasoning Tasks with Training-Free Uncertainty-Guided Steering

arXiv:2609.38962v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent work on hallucination detection in large language models has shown that, for a fixed pre-trained model and reasoning task, it is possible to est...

By Litian Liu, Qiqi Hou, Yubing Jian, Reza Pourreza, Mohammad Ghavamzadeh, Roland Memisevic, Yao Qin, Hong Cai

llms safety

Hugging Face Trending Papers

Jul 9

What LLM Forecasters Know but Don't Say: Probing Internal Representations for Calibration and Faithfulness

Large language models fine-tuned for forecasting can be accurate yet poorly calibrated, and their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may not faithfully reflect the evidence behind a forecast. We ask whether internal representations offer a more direct window into both.

llms fine-tuning benchmarks

Related stories