Neural surrogates for forecasting physical fields from sparse, noisy sensors typically use a spatial window and a temporal history of past snapshots. This study compares the trade‑off between window size and history length against the Bayes‑optimal error, showing that for fields with local dynamics the optimal forecast relies mainly on distant sensors via spatial correlation. Experiments on Burgers flow and the chaotic Kuramoto‑Sivashinsky equation reveal that the benefit of additional snapshots depends on lead time and system stability, leading to design rules that size the window in correlation lengths and split input budgets between window and history based on forecast horizon.
Machine-learning emulators of chaotic and stochastic systems are usually validated on forecast skill and long-run statistics. Neither certifies that an emulator responds correctly to forcing, the property that projection and attribution studies rely on.
arXiv:2608. 22277v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep learning surrogates for forecasting chaotic dynamical systems suffer from catastrophic error accumulation over long-term autoregressive rollouts.
arXiv:2610.06798v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine-learning emulators of chaotic and stochastic systems are usually validated on forecast skill and long-run statistics. Neither certifi...
arXiv:2607. 28080v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We extend a recently introduced Entropy-Optimal Manifold Clustering (EOMC) to allow for a joint simultaneous identification of subsets and subspaces of relevant features in nonstationary and nonlinear regression problems.
arXiv:2608. 22277v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep learning surrogates have become powerful tools for simulating and forecasting complex dynamical systems, yet their utility remains limited by catastrophic error accumulation during long-term autoregressive rollouts.
arXiv:2607. 14937v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent foundation models (FMs) for zero-shot reconstruction of dynamical systems (DS) achieve strong out-of-domain generalization but provide little insight into the mechanisms that underlie their forecasts.
The paper introduces flux‑form spatiotemporal neural operators for predicting coarse‑grained dynamics of multiscale PDEs without relying on closure models. It learns a surrogate evolution operator from filtered high‑fidelity data, using Fourier convolution for spatial mixing and a causal kernel with time‑lag attention for temporal mixing. The method incorporates a flux‑form inductive bias to maintain conservation and provides a data‑driven rule for selecting memory length, achieving stable, accurate long‑horizon rollouts on benchmark equations and turbulent flow simulations.
arXiv:2607. 00196v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many scientific systems exhibit uncertainty from stochastic forcing, unresolved degrees of freedom, or imperfect observations, making reliable surrogate forecasting fundamentally distributional rather than pointwise.
arXiv:2607. 16894v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many complex systems such as brain networks, financial markets, and gene-regulatory circuits are described not by a fixed graph but by one that changes over time.
arXiv:2507. 03631v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Extracting interpretable mathematical models from complex dynamical systems is difficult, especially for chaotic dynamics observed with noisy experimental data.
arXiv:2606. 05618v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Extreme events -- such as earthquakes and coronal mass ejections -- are common in many chaotic dynamical systems, yet are difficult to characterize and predict due to the subtle instability mechanisms that drive them.
arXiv:2507.21299v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While data-driven techniques are powerful tools for reduced-order modeling of systems with chaotic dynamics, great potential remains for leveraging...