Machine-learning emulators of chaotic and stochastic systems are usually validated on forecast skill and long-run statistics. Neither certifies that an emulator responds correctly to forcing, the property that projection and attribution studies rely on.
arXiv:2610.06798v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine-learning emulators of chaotic and stochastic systems are usually validated on forecast skill and long-run statistics. Neither certifi...
arXiv:2507. 03631v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Extracting interpretable mathematical models from complex dynamical systems is difficult, especially for chaotic dynamics observed with noisy experimental data.
Neural surrogates for forecasting physical fields from sparse, noisy sensors typically use a spatial window and a temporal history of past snapshots. This study compares the trade‑off between window size and history length against the Bayes‑optimal error, showing that for fields with local dynamics the optimal forecast relies mainly on distant sensors via spatial correlation. Experiments on Burgers flow and the chaotic Kuramoto‑Sivashinsky equation reveal that the benefit of additional snapshots depends on lead time and system stability, leading to design rules that size the window in correlation lengths and split input budgets between window and history based on forecast horizon.
arXiv:2606. 09929v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Physical reservoir computing harnesses nonlinear mechanical dynamics but, by convention, freezes the substrate and trains only a linear readout, presuming the substrate is not usefully trainable.
The paper introduces a world model that learns to predict the evolution of physical systems while respecting key physical principles. By hard‑coding a general structure—generating dynamics from the gradient of a learned energy via a fixed reversible operator and imposing constraints on energy, dissipation, and interventions—the model achieves second‑law compatible dissipation, accurate responses to parameter changes, long‑term stability, and robustness to disturbances. Experiments on an electromagnetic cavity, a particle‑in‑cell grid, and shallow‑water fluid demonstrate that the model can recover accurate constitutive functions, distinguish conserving from dissipating regimes, and transfer learned physics to unseen conditions, outperforming unconstrained models.
arXiv:2606. 11251v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many multivariate dynamical systems are observed only through trajectories, leaving the mechanisms governing their joint dynamics hidden.
arXiv:2607. 00196v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many scientific systems exhibit uncertainty from stochastic forcing, unresolved degrees of freedom, or imperfect observations, making reliable surrogate forecasting fundamentally distributional rather than pointwise.
The paper presents a nonlinear dissipative dynamical model of human learning, featuring a concept‑transfer matrix, per‑concept forgetting rates, and a saturating practice‑response gain. It proves a structural identifiability theorem that guarantees exact parameter recovery under explicit excitation conditions, provides closed‑form recovery for the two‑concept case, and introduces a fast, L‑stable numerical scheme enabling estimation on large learner cohorts. Empirical results show exact recovery on synthetic data with designed excitation, but failure to recover on large observational benchmarks, illustrating a sharp boundary between identifiable and unidentifiable regimes and offering a validation protocol for interpretability claims.
arXiv:2608. 16084v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural autoregressive models have rapidly emerged as powerful emulators of high-dimensional chaotic systems, yet their long-term instability and error growth remain poorly understood, leading to ad-hoc solutions.
arXiv:2507.04553v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliability analysis traditionally relies on deterministic simulators, where identical inputs yield identical outputs. However, many real-wor...
arXiv:2607. 03671v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Models of complex systems often have many parameters, yet are constrained by far fewer experimentally accessible observables: similar activity can emerge from coordinated parameter changes.
arXiv:2610.08118v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Covariate-aware time-series foundation models (TSFMs) promise training-free what-if answers for instrumented plants: the change in output that a differ...