arXiv Machine Learning
3d ago

VertiFuseX: Generalizable Financial Forecasting via Multi-Stream Temporal Fusion

VertiFuseX is a hybrid LSTM architecture that fuses multi‑scale temporal representations at the penultimate layer, stacking features from LSTM, Bi‑LSTM, and St‑LSTM branches and a parallel DNN stream. On 15 years of global equity index data, it reduces MAPE by 30‑54% and improves MAE and RMSE by over 40% compared to LSTM baselines, outperforming seven state‑of‑the‑art models across 33 metric‑dataset comparisons. The model is lightweight (675k parameters, 2.6 MB footprint) with 1.5 ms/sample inference latency and demonstrates robust, interpretable forecasting with reduced drawdowns in algorithmic trading simulations.

By Aashish Bohra, Vivek Vijay
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 7

WaveletDiff: Multilevel Wavelet Diffusion For Time Series Generation

WaveletDiff is a diffusion-based framework that generates time series by training directly on wavelet coefficients, leveraging multi-resolution structure through level‑specific transformers and cross‑level attention with adaptive gating. The model incorporates Parseval‑theorem‑based energy constraints to preserve time‑frequency properties during diffusion. Experiments on six real‑world datasets from energy, finance, and neuroscience show that WaveletDiff outperforms several diffusion baselines and competes with the VAE/transformer‑based MSDformer, achieving lower discriminative and Context‑FID scores while using fewer parameters and less training time.

By Yu-Hsiang Wang, Olgica Milenkovic
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 13

Forking-Sequences: Statistically and Computationally Efficient Multi-Horizon Forecasting with Reduced Volatility

arXiv:2510. 04487v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While accuracy is a critical requirement for time series forecasting, an equally important desideratum is reasonable forecast volatility across forecast creation dates (FCDs).

By Willa Potosnak, Malcolm Wolff, Mengfei Cao, Ruijun Ma, Tatiana Konstantinova, Dmitry Efimov, Michael W. Mahoney, Boris Oreshkin, Kin G. Olivares