arXiv Machine Learning By Yixuan Liang

Validated Data Onboarding for AI Demand Forecasting on U.S. Building Meter Data: Design, Controlled Evaluation, and a Corrected Negative Result

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The paper introduces a data‑onboarding pipeline that detects and repairs defects in building meter data before training machine‑learning demand‑forecasting models. Controlled experiments on hourly electricity data from twelve U.S. buildings show that the pipeline restores forecast accuracy to clean‑data levels, even when defects affect up to 1.6% of training rows, and works across multiple models and horizons. The study also documents a first‑version over‑cleaning issue, its cause, and a per‑building calibration that corrects it, with all results reproducible from publicly pinned inputs.

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arXiv Machine Learning
1d ago

Benchmarking Sensor-Fault Robustness in Forecasting

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By Alexander Windmann, Philipp Wittenberg, Gianluca Manca, Marcel Dix, Jens U. Brandt, Oliver Niggemann
arXiv AI
Oct 12

Machine Learning and Time-Series Foundation Models for Day-Ahead Electricity Forecasting in a University Building

The study benchmarks various forecasting models—including statistical, machine‑learning, recurrent neural networks, and pretrained TimesFM—for day‑ahead electricity demand in a university building. TimesFM 3.0 with weather covariates achieves the lowest overall mean absolute error, outperforming a weekly seasonal‑naive baseline by about 43%, while XGBoost remains competitive and requires only local fitting. The LSTM model takes longer to train without improving accuracy, and TimesFM’s performance is robust even without covariates, though covariates slightly improve holiday forecasts.

By Amey Vasulkar, Samuel Kernan Freire, Arie-Willem de Leeuw, Tadeo-Baldiri Salcedo-Rahola