Uncertainty-Aware Optimization for Physics-Aware Highway Trajectory Prediction
Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →The paper introduces uncertainty-aware extensions of the X-TRACK physics‑aware trajectory prediction framework, namely X-TRACK-DE and X-TRACK-MCD. These extensions predict future vehicle motion variables while explicitly modeling and propagating both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties through vehicle dynamics, rather than only in trajectory space. Conformal prediction is then applied to the trajectory‑space covariance to create uncertainty regions that achieve a desired marginal coverage level, and experiments on the highD dataset demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and calibrated uncertainty estimates.
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