arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 2

TRIE: An Evaluation Framework for Stochastic PDE Surrogates

arXiv:2607. 00196v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many scientific systems exhibit uncertainty from stochastic forcing, unresolved degrees of freedom, or imperfect observations, making reliable surrogate forecasting fundamentally distributional rather than pointwise.

By Bharat Srikishan, Javier E. Santos, Nikhil Muralidhar, Charles D. Young
arXiv Computer Vision
4d ago

ReWorld-Track: A Recursive Event World Model for Language-Guided Multi-Camera Tracking

ReWorld-Track introduces a recursive event world model for language‑guided multi‑camera tracking that explicitly carries association uncertainty into future predictions. By treating candidate matches and waiting as alternative target states, the model updates a persistent recurrent belief that preserves uncertainty across successive observations. This approach improves identity continuity and next‑camera accuracy, achieving HOTA scores of 65.19 on CityFlowV2 and 45.36 on MTMMC, and reducing median arrival‑time error from 0.78 s to 0.71 s.

By Haoyang Wu, Shoudong Han, Chaoyue Li, Sijia Chen, Zhenyang Xie, Wang sihan
arXiv AI
Aug 24

SPARC: Single-Pass Scaling for Motion Forecasting with Conformal Bayesian Last Layers

SPARC (Single-Pass Adaptive Risk Calibration) is a Bayesian‑conformal uncertainty layer for human motion forecasting that adds an analytic epistemic scale to a deterministic MLP backbone’s Gaussian covariance. The scale, κ_t(x), inflates the covariance without altering its correlation structure, enabling 95% marginal prediction tubes with finite‑sample validity via split conformal calibration. Across nine dataset‑protocol blocks, SPARC outperforms baselines on NLL and a combined MPJPE+NLL metric while maintaining competitive point accuracy and efficient calibrated tubes.

By Sakif Hossain, Julian Teusch, J\"org P. M\"uller