Uncertainty-Aware Trajectory Forecasting from Imperfect Tracking
Read the original on arXiv Computer Vision →The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Computer Vision.
The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Computer Vision.
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ReWorld-Track introduces a recursive event world model for language‑guided multi‑camera tracking that explicitly carries association uncertainty into future predictions. By treating candidate matches and waiting as alternative target states, the model updates a persistent recurrent belief that preserves uncertainty across successive observations. This approach improves identity continuity and next‑camera accuracy, achieving HOTA scores of 65.19 on CityFlowV2 and 45.36 on MTMMC, and reducing median arrival‑time error from 0.78 s to 0.71 s.
SPARC (Single-Pass Adaptive Risk Calibration) is a Bayesian‑conformal uncertainty layer for human motion forecasting that adds an analytic epistemic scale to a deterministic MLP backbone’s Gaussian covariance. The scale, κ_t(x), inflates the covariance without altering its correlation structure, enabling 95% marginal prediction tubes with finite‑sample validity via split conformal calibration. Across nine dataset‑protocol blocks, SPARC outperforms baselines on NLL and a combined MPJPE+NLL metric while maintaining competitive point accuracy and efficient calibrated tubes.