arXiv Computation and Language By Andr\'es Bux\'o-Lugo, Aniello De Santo, Morgan Grobol, Ryan J. Hubbard, Cassandra L. Jacobs

surprisal is Not a Theory

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The article argues that Surprisal Theory, often presented as a computational-level explanation, is not a theory in its own right. It contends that using large language model (LLM) surprisals without considering the underlying representational and algorithmic choices obscures the theory’s commitments. The authors demonstrate through three analyses that algorithm and architecture significantly influence language model probabilities, urging researchers to reassess treating LLM surprisals as interchangeable.

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