Strategic Doctrine Language Models (sdLM): A Learning-System Framework for Doctrinal Consistency and Geopolitical Forecasting
Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →Strategic Doctrine Language Models (sdLM) are a learning‑system framework that integrates multi‑document attention, temporal encoding, and a doctrine‑consistency layer to enable multi‑document strategic reasoning with doctrinal consistency constraints and calibrated uncertainty. The authors evaluate sdLM on expert‑panel scoring of 47 strategic scenarios, doctrine consistency across 336 doctrine publications (12,847 statements), and geopolitical forecasting on 127 historical counterfactuals spanning 1945‑2020 over 12‑60 month horizons, showing higher strategic quality and better calibration than strong general‑purpose LLM baselines and competitiveness with human experts on long‑horizon judgments. Ablation studies, scaling trends, and deployment‑oriented performance/latency characteristics are reported to identify which components drive improvements and how they translate to operational settings.
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