arXiv AI By Jasin Cekinmez, Addison J. Wu, Haotian Xia, Akshaya Bharadhwaj, Anay Putty, Anirudh Ravishankar, Jaewoong Lee, Jinglin Xiao, Kyumin Andrew Shim, Mishika Ahuja, Nisarga Patil, Leo Liu, Zhuohan Liu, Weining Shen

SportD: Can VLMs Physically Strategize?

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arXiv:2607. 14616v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vision--language models have become increasingly capable of interpreting visual scenes, but it remains unclear whether they can use information to make strategically effective decisions.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 31

Biases in Expected Goals Models Confound Finishing Ability

The paper investigates the reliability of Expected Goals (xG) as a measure of finishing skill in soccer, arguing that the common practice of comparing cumulative xG to actual goals is flawed. It presents three hypotheses: high variance and small sample sizes make the deviation metric inadequate, including all shot types can mask true finishing ability, and inherent biases in xG models reduce the apparent gap between expected and actual goals for top finishers. Using an AI‑fairness technique to calibrate xG across player subgroups, the authors demonstrate that standard models underestimate Messi’s goal‑adjusted xG (GAX) by 17% and that his GAX is 27% higher than that of typical elite high‑shot‑volume attackers, revealing him as an even more exceptional finisher than previously thought.

By Jesse Davis, Pieter Robberechts
arXiv AI
Jun 10

Monte Carlo Pass Search: Using Trajectory Generation for 3D Counterfactual Pass Evaluation in Football

arXiv:2606. 11120v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We recast pass evaluation in football (soccer) as a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-like evaluation problem whose components mostly exist in the literature under different names: a value model (possession value), a world model (multi-agent trajectories with ball interactions), and a policy over counterfactual actions (sampling pass variants with noise).

By Andrew Kang, Priya Narasimhan