arXiv AI
Sep 3

The Ceiling Is in the Channel: Auditing Learner Gaps and Measurement Frontiers in Clinical Prediction

The paper introduces a framework that distinguishes two causes of saturation in clinical prediction: a learner gap, where the model fails to use available information, and a measurement‑channel ceiling, where the recorded variables limit performance. It provides theoretical characterizations, finite‑sample diagnostics, and empirical audits across three large cohorts, showing that well‑tuned models approach the frontier while deficient learners leave large gaps. A PRISMA‑guided synthesis across 104 tasks reveals consistent channel‑level patterns, suggesting that improving the learner or the measurement channel can audit and potentially lift performance.

By Sayeed Shafayet Chowdhury, Nusrat Jahan, Snehasis Mukhopadhyay, Shiaofen Fang, Vijay R. Ramakrishnan
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 30

CalTwin: Towards Calibrated, Shift-Robust Medical World Models via Fisher-Information Regularisation

arXiv:2607. 26752v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Medical world models aim to learn a latent state of patient or organ physiology and a transition function that forecasts how that state evolves under interventions, supporting downstream tasks from imaging-based diagnosis to digital-twin treatment planning.

By Behraj Khan, Shabir Ahmad, Syed Ahmad Chan Bukhari, Tahir Qasim Syed
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Toward Fairness in Machine Learning Models for Predicting Treatment Retention and Premature Discontinuation in Medication for Opioid Use Disorder

The paper evaluates machine learning models that predict retention and premature discontinuation in medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD). Using the Treatment Episode Data Set-Discharges (TEDS‑D) from 2015‑2019, the authors trained four models and examined overall performance as well as subgroup error rates by race, ethnicity, age, and sex. They also tested bias‑mitigation techniques, finding that these can reduce but not eliminate performance gaps without harming predictive accuracy.

By Tongnian Wang, Carolina Vivas-Valencia, Cici Bauer, Yanmin Gong, Kim-Kwang Raymond Choo, Yuanxiong Guo
arXiv AI
Jul 24

A Knowledge-Injection Framework for Zero-Shot Adaptation of LLMs to Delirium Prediction

arXiv:2607. 20453v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models show promise for clinical prediction, but zero-shot performance on specialized tasks is limited by incomplete domain knowledge, especially for smaller locally deployable models.

By Jessica Sena, Shesadree Priyadarshani, Miguel Contreras, Bharat Gandhi, Scott Siegel, Subhash Nerella, Parisa Rashidi