arXiv Machine Learning By Mingyu Zhao, Zhaohan Li, Zhenxiong Miao, Xu Zhang, Dewei Leng, Yanan Niu, Kun Gai

PIT-SUN: A Deployable Empirical Marginal Transform Framework with Expectation-Consistent Recovery for Regression in Recommender Systems

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arXiv:2607. 08202v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating original-space conditional expectations is central to value-driven recommender systems, including dwell time, GMV, and LTV forecasting.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Monotone-Constrained Diffusion Models for Long-Horizon Production Forecasting

The paper introduces Physics‑SIMS‑TS, a conditional diffusion model designed for long‑horizon oil and gas production forecasting. It enforces monotone decline through negative guidance, decline‑curve constraints, and isotonic projection during sampling, and incorporates spatial training augmentation and an ensembled stochastic sampler to produce calibrated predictive distributions. Evaluated on over 35,000 wells across three jurisdictions, Physics‑SIMS‑TS achieves the highest accuracy among diffusion forecasters and matches transformer ensembles, with only a 0.5% increase in mean squared error for monotonicity.

By Temesgen Mikael Abraha, Yves Lucet