arXiv:2609.25152v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Deep Imbalanced Regression (DIR) addresses a common failure mode of regression models: target distributions are highly non-uniform, causing models to p...
By Noah C. Puetz, Jens U. Brandt, Marc Hilbert, Elena Raponi, Thomas B\"ack, Thomas Bartz-Beielstein
Deep Imbalanced Regression (DIR) addresses a common failure mode of regression models: target distributions are highly non-uniform, causing models to perform best in densely populated target regions e...
arXiv:2606. 04342v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-step time series forecasting (MSF) is commonly evaluated using point-wise error metrics such as mean squared error (MSE), implicitly treating the conditional mean as a sufficient target.
By Riku Green, Zahraa S. Abdallah, Telmo M Silva Filho
arXiv:2606. 22775v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Distribution shift between training and deployment is a pervasive challenge for modern AI systems.
By Zhewen Hou, Tian Zheng
The paper introduces Physics‑SIMS‑TS, a conditional diffusion model designed for long‑horizon oil and gas production forecasting. It enforces monotone decline through negative guidance, decline‑curve constraints, and isotonic projection during sampling, and incorporates spatial training augmentation and an ensembled stochastic sampler to produce calibrated predictive distributions. Evaluated on over 35,000 wells across three jurisdictions, Physics‑SIMS‑TS achieves the highest accuracy among diffusion forecasters and matches transformer ensembles, with only a 0.5% increase in mean squared error for monotonicity.
By Temesgen Mikael Abraha, Yves Lucet
arXiv:2602. 13362v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty.
By \'Ad\'am Jung, Domokos M. Kelen, Andr\'as A. Bencz\'ur