arXiv Machine Learning July 10, 2026 By Mingyu Zhao, Zhaohan Li, Zhenxiong Miao, Xu Zhang, Dewei Leng, Yanan Niu, Kun Gai

PIT-SUN: A Deployable Empirical Marginal Transform Framework with Expectation-Consistent Recovery for Regression in Recommender Systems

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

arXiv:2607. 08202v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating original-space conditional expectations is central to value-driven recommender systems, including dwell time, GMV, and LTV forecasting.

Summary generated by The Flow from the publisher's feed. The full article lives at arXiv Machine Learning.

arXiv AI

Jun 4

Expectations vs. Realities: The Cost of MSE-Optimal Forecasting Under Conditional Uncertainty

arXiv:2606. 04342v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-step time series forecasting (MSF) is commonly evaluated using point-wise error metrics such as mean squared error (MSE), implicitly treating the conditional mean as a sufficient target.

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arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 24

Target-Aware Linear Regression Under Distribution Shift

arXiv:2606. 22775v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Distribution shift between training and deployment is a pervasive challenge for modern AI systems.

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arXiv Machine Learning

Aug 4

Nonparametric Distribution Regression Re-calibration

arXiv:2602. 13362v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty.

By \'Ad\'am Jung, Domokos M. Kelen, Andr\'as A. Bencz\'ur

rag benchmarks safety

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 5

OrderGrad: Optimizing Beyond the Mean with Order-Statistic Policy Gradient Estimation

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arXiv AI

Jun 2

Efficient Weighted Sampling via Score-based Generative Models

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arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 10

CITRAS-FM: Tiny Time Series Foundation Model for Covariate-Informed Zero-Shot Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 10798v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have enabled zero-shot forecasting on unseen target series.

By Yosuke Yamaguchi, Issei Suemitsu, Yuki Kajihara, Wenpeng Wei

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Expectations vs. Realities: The Cost of MSE-Optimal Forecasting Under Conditional Uncertainty

Target-Aware Linear Regression Under Distribution Shift

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OrderGrad: Optimizing Beyond the Mean with Order-Statistic Policy Gradient Estimation

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CITRAS-FM: Tiny Time Series Foundation Model for Covariate-Informed Zero-Shot Forecasting