arXiv AI By Gaurav Tewari

Pilot Early, Commit Late: A Real-Options Model of Enterprise AI Adoption under Rapid Technological Progress

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The paper presents a two‑period decision model for AI deployment that contrasts immediate deployment, a limited pilot, and waiting. It shows how frontier uncertainty, expected progress, and the value of organization‑specific learning influence the optimal timing of AI adoption, identifying conditions under which a "pilot early, commit late" strategy is best. The model also derives a modularity threshold beyond which immediate deployment becomes optimal and discusses how different learning sources affect timing margins.

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