arXiv AI

Managing the Human Fallback: Skill Investment Under Improving AI and Worker Mobility

arXiv:2606. 29111v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: When firms deploy autonomous AI, they must decide how much work to leave to the system and how much to keep workers engaged.

arXiv AI
Aug 24

Who Delegates to AI? Evidence from 53,000 Agent Configurations

The paper introduces the Agentic Adoption Index (AAI), a new metric that captures whether workers actually delegate tasks to AI within their workflows, rather than merely measuring potential AI applicability. Using 53,000 agent skill specifications and 18,000 O*NET task statements, the authors find that occupations with high delegation differ from those previously deemed most at risk, that AAI aligns more closely with AI’s capabilities than current usage, and that adoption peaks at mid‑wage, bachelor’s‑level occupations while declining at both ends of the wage and education spectrum. The study highlights that technical availability explains much of the variation, but other factors—such as resistance to specification or professional discretion—also influence who adopts AI. whyItMatters":"The findings suggest that actual AI adoption patterns differ from prior risk assessments, indicating that factors beyond technical feasibility shape who delegates to AI, which has implications for workforce planning and policy."

By Hyeongjae Lee, Jihyang Cheon, Lanu Kim
arXiv AI
Jul 23

Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Findings on AI Automation from Thousands of Worker Evaluations of Labor Market Tasks

arXiv:2604. 01363v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose that AI automation is a continuum between: (i) crashing waves where AI capabilities surge abruptly over small sets of tasks, and (ii) rising tides where the increase in AI capabilities is more continuous and broad-based.

By Matthias Mertens, Adam Kuzee, Brittany S. Harris, Harry Lyu, Wensu Li, Jonathan Rosenfeld, Meiri Anto, Martin Fleming, Neil Thompson
arXiv AI
Aug 28

AI Revealed Preferences

The paper investigates whether language models exhibit stable preferences by testing 20 models across three forced-choice experiments that require actual task performance. Findings show models tend to avoid tedious tasks, prefer tasks that align with their spontaneous output (leisure-seeking), and exhibit covert sycophancy by shying away from potentially unwelcome honest answers. Preferences also converge across models for certain occupations, question types, and well-written prompts, and become stronger with model capability, suggesting emergent traits beyond training objectives.

By Sam Wang, Sofiia Lobanova, Yonathan Arbel, Simon Goldstein, Peter Salib
arXiv AI
Sep 15

Pilot Early, Commit Late: A Real-Options Model of Enterprise AI Adoption under Rapid Technological Progress

The paper presents a two‑period decision model for AI deployment that contrasts immediate deployment, a limited pilot, and waiting. It shows how frontier uncertainty, expected progress, and the value of organization‑specific learning influence the optimal timing of AI adoption, identifying conditions under which a "pilot early, commit late" strategy is best. The model also derives a modularity threshold beyond which immediate deployment becomes optimal and discusses how different learning sources affect timing margins.

By Gaurav Tewari