arXiv:2512. 03606v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable.
By Matteo Peduto, Qidong Yang, Jonathan Giezendanner, Devis Tuia, Sherrie Wang
arXiv:2608. 04695v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Federated adaptation of time-series foundation models (TSFMs) is attractive for building energy forecasting because meter data are private, distributed, and highly non-IID.
By Priyanka Nihalchandani, Naman Srivastava, Varun Ojha, Pandarasamy Arjunan
The paper presents a statistical framework for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, treating them as localized aggregation systems. It derives oracle risk bounds that separate approximation, expert‑learning, and router‑estimation errors for both dense and sparse routing with evolving experts. The authors also analyze how sparse Top‑K routing balances computational cost with performance, interpret gating geometrically, and explain how shared experts can capture common predictive structure while allowing routed experts to focus on local residuals.
By Siyuan He, Bokai Yang, Jie Hu, Ziwen Gao, Yuhong Yang
Federated adaptation of time-series foundation models (TSFMs) is attractive for building energy forecasting because meter data are private, distributed, and highly non-IID. However, a single parameter-sharing strategy is unlikely to serve all pretrained TSFMs or building clients: fully shared adapters can suppress building-specific temporal behavior, while fully local adaptation discards cross-building transfer.
M3-Former is a multimodal transformer framework that uses large language models to encode vessel static attributes and navigational intent as semantic priors for long‑term trajectory prediction. It builds a unified multimodal representation space, aligns static semantic information with dynamic trajectory features via self‑attention, and employs a dual‑granularity Mixture‑of‑Experts architecture to capture both global route planning and fine‑grained maneuvering behaviors. A Steering‑Weighted Cross‑Entropy loss further improves accuracy on sparse turning events, and experiments on a Danish AIS dataset show consistent improvements over state‑of‑the‑art baselines, reducing ADE and FDE by up to 5.1% in 4‑hour predictions.
By Wenzhe Jin, Haina Tang
arXiv:2606. 15240v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate vessel trajectory forecasting is essential for maritime situational awareness, navigation safety, traffic management, and autonomous navigation.
By Kun Ma, Qilong Han, Chengjing Song, Jingzheng Yao, Hao Wang, Changmao Wu