arXiv:2606. 02791v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Watershed networks exhibit convergent topologies in which multiple tributaries merge into downstream channels,integrating diverse upstream hydrological processes.
By Taye Akinrele, James Halgren, Noorbakhsh Amiri Golilarz, Sudip Mittal, Shahram Rahimi
arXiv:2510. 02605v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While many modern studies are dedicated to ML-based large-sample hydrologic modeling, these efforts have not necessarily translated into predictive improvements that are grounded in enhanced physical-conceptual understanding.
By Yuan-Heng Wang, Yang Yang, Fabio Ciulla, Hoshin V. Gupta, Charuleka Varadharajan
Emergency managers need to know where floodwater is, how deep it is, and how it will change over the coming hours across an entire river basin. During a flood, however, real-time measurements come fro...
arXiv:2605. 00941v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Flow matching has become a leading framework for generative modeling, but quantifying the uncertainty of its samples remains an open problem.
By Jiarui Xing, Song Wang, Jian Wang
The paper introduces Pangu‑Bayes, a probabilistic forecasting hierarchy that separates atmospheric‑state uncertainty from learned‑model uncertainty as distinct stochastic variables, allowing cross‑flow perturbations of the evolving state with Bayesian parameter samples. In tests on 90 held‑out 2023 tropical cyclones, Pangu‑Bayes reduces track, pressure, and wind errors by 54.2%, 17.2%, and 24.9% respectively, and improves rapid‑intensification detection. The study finds that atmospheric‑state variability more consistently improves track prediction, while learned‑model variability more often enhances intensity prediction, demonstrating how model‑defined uncertainty resolution can be linked to target‑dependent value and dynamical interpretation.
By Wenbo Hu, Xinlei Xiong, Shuxun Zhou, Kaifeng Bi, Lingxi Xie, Jun Zhu, Richang Hong, Qi Tian
arXiv:2609.39005v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Emergency managers need to know where floodwater is, how deep it is, and how it will change over the coming hours across an entire river basin. During...
By Yanjie Tong, Phillip Si, Yuan Qiu, Peng Chen