arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 5

Predictively Oriented Gaussian Process Posteriors

arXiv:2610.03201v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modelling and quantifying uncertainty in functional relationships. However, they require practitione...

By Callum Lau, Jeremias Knoblauch, Louis Sharrock
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 15

Bayesian Optimisation Using Product-of-Experts Gaussian Process Models with Uncertainty Calibration

The paper introduces BO-pro-c, a Bayesian optimisation algorithm that employs a product-of-experts Gaussian process (GP-pro-c) as its surrogate model. GP-pro-c combines multiple local GP experts to improve uncertainty quantification, reduce computational cost, and preserve global correlations, addressing the cubic complexity of single global GP models. Experiments show that BO-pro-c achieves competitive optimisation performance with a 0.9% lower simple regret and a 39.4% reduction in computational overhead compared to a single‑global‑GP baseline.

By Yean Hoon Ong
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 9

SCORE: Spectral Correlation Estimation for Multivariate Gaussians

The paper introduces SCORE, a scalable framework that learns an expressive covariance approximation for high‑dimensional Gaussian targets by combining scoring rule training with spectral‑space modeling. It decomposes the learning task into marginal distribution estimation and structured correlation matrix learning, achieving dense dependencies with linear storage and ≠(d log d) computational cost. The method employs a closed‑form Gaussian kernel score that remains valid for degenerate covariances, provides bounded gradients, and is invariant under unitary transforms, with theoretical guarantees on marginal recovery and correlation projection, and demonstrates improved performance on time‑series forecasting, monocular depth estimation, and spatial weather prediction.

By Christopher B\"ulte, Emil Partow, Astha Gupta, Pascal Esser, Gitta Kutyniok