arXiv Machine Learning By Vasundhara Acharya, Bulent Yener

From Unsupervised Subgroups to Hypothetical State-Intervention Policies: An Evaluation of Selected Subgrouping Methods in Observational Health Data

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arXiv:2607. 26521v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conventional subgroup analyses can yield unstable and difficult-to-interpret conclusions, especially in observational biomedical data where each individual is observed under only one exposure state, true individual treatment effects are unavailable, and causal structure is uncertain.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 16

Splitting the Difference: Interpretable Causal Forests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity and Bias

The paper introduces a new algorithm that uses decision trees and random forests to estimate individual treatment effects while providing interpretability. It modifies the standard random forest splitting criterion by combining a heterogeneity-focused criterion with a bias-correction criterion, enabling the model to handle observational studies with varying treatment propensities without separately estimating propensity scores. The resulting tree structure directly reveals which features drive treatment effect differences, and simulation studies show the method matches or surpasses existing approaches in prediction accuracy while improving interpretability.

By Nicolas Alexander Ihlo, Merle Behr