arXiv Machine Learning

MEC-Cox: Machine-Learning-Assisted Generalized Entropy Calibration for ATT Marginal Hazard-Ratio Estimation

arXiv:2606. 08305v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Externally controlled survival trials are increasingly used when concurrent randomized controls are infeasible, particularly in oncology and rare-disease settings with time-to-event endpoints.

arXiv AI
Sep 7

Adaptation Interfaces for In-Context Tabular Foundation Models in Time-to-Event Prediction

The paper explores how to adapt tabular foundation models (TabFMs) for censored time‑to‑event prediction by linking them with CoxPH and DeepHit and revising training procedures. It evaluates zero‑shot, classification‑based fine‑tuning, and survival‑head adaptations across 74 single‑risk and 4 competing‑risk datasets, finding that zero‑shot works best on small datasets while supervised adaptation excels as data grows. The study shows that the choice of adaptation interface and data regime critically influences TabFM transfer performance.

By Minh-Khoi Pham, Luca Cotugno, Dan Cernei, Alina Sirbu, Stefano Masi, Giuseppe Prencipe, Alessandro Pingitore, Patrizia Landi, Working Group on Uric Acid, Cardiovascular Risk of the Italian Society of Hypertension, Tai Tan Mai, Martin Crane, Marija Bezbradica
arXiv Computation and Language
Oct 1

Large Language Models are Approximate Survival Estimators

arXiv:2609.38181v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Survival analysis estimates time-to-event outcomes from patient covariates and is widely used for medical risk assessment. Patients seeking prognostic...

By Juan M Zambrano Chaves, Peniel Argaw, Risa Ueno, Carlo Bifulco, Kristina Young, Rom Leidner, Tristan Naumann, Hoifung Poon
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 24

Learning Risk Scores Robust to Unobserved Confounders

The paper introduces a method for learning risk scores that remain reliable even when historical data contain unobserved confounders. By treating propensity weights as uncertain and applying sensitivity analysis with Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization, the authors formulate a robust learning problem solvable via an exponential cone program. Experiments on semi‑synthetic UCI data show the approach improves calibration by up to 29.2% over traditional benchmarks and 11.1% over the state of the art, without harming other performance metrics.

By Ryan Edmonds, Yingxiao Ye, Sina Aghaei, Andr\'es G\'omez, \c{C}a\u{g}{\i}l Ko\c{c}yi\u{g}it, Phebe Vayanos
arXiv Machine Learning
4d ago

Efficient Learning of Survival Analysis Models Under Outcome-Dependent Truncation and Censoring

The paper investigates efficient learning of survival analysis models when data are subject to outcome-dependent truncation and right-censoring. It demonstrates that Cox regression can be trained with first‑order optimization when the baseline hazard is known, but joint learning of the baseline hazard introduces strict suboptimal local minima. Experiments on four datasets show that accounting for truncation reduces prediction bias and yields orders‑of‑magnitude speedups over expectation maximization.

By Itai Zilberstein, Ioannis Anagnostides, Arman Kilic, Tuomas Sandholm