arXiv:2606. 28225v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal link prediction is usually evaluated by predictive performance on unseen edges, but in probabilistic temporal graphs this criterion can conflate model error with irreducible uncertainty.
By Aniq Ur Rahman
arXiv:2609.36689v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Large language models have achieved significant progress in event forecasting, yet their probability outputs exhibit systematic calibration bias that v...
By Wenjin Liu, Chenxi Wang, Yue Lu, Zhe Cui, Haoran Luo
The paper presents RCBNB-MB, a causal discovery algorithm that relaxes the assumption of a single, time‑consistent causal structure in time series. It identifies latent causal regimes—subsets of time points where a stable causal graph holds—and iteratively segments the series to recover both regime transitions and the corresponding causal graphs using Markov blankets. The authors provide theoretical guarantees and demonstrate through simulations and real IT monitoring data that RCBNB-MB outperforms baseline methods in detecting regime changes and their causal structures.
By Lei Zan, Charles K. Assaad, Emilie Devijver, Eric Gaussier
arXiv:2606. 06440v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data-driven causal relationship identification is pertinent to advancing understanding of complex systems both within and beyond science.
By Hazhir Aliahmadi, Irina Babayan, Greg van Anders
The paper addresses causal discovery in Directed Acyclic Graphs where nodes are either ordinal (modeled with an ordered logit) or follow a one‑parameter exponential family distribution. It proves that the direction of edges between such nodes is identifiable for generic parameter values, extending prior Ordinal‑Poisson results. The authors also propose a score‑based exhaustive search and a masked continuous optimization method using DAGMA, and demonstrate through simulations that these approaches recover orientations that are otherwise unidentifiable under classical structural equation models.
By Sambit Mishra, Yingying Wang, Christine K. Johnson, Urbashi Mitra
arXiv:2607. 09449v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian causal discovery is widely used for its ability to quantify epistemic uncertainty over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) through posterior inference.
By Debargha Ghosh, Silja Renooij, Anna Kononova