arXiv Machine Learning

From Observation to Intervention: A Causal Audit of Expert Importance in Mixture-of-Experts Models

arXiv:2606. 10703v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Interpretability methods routinely use population-level summary statistics over observed model behaviour to license claims about the effects of targeted interventions on specific computations; in Pearl's terms, they treat rung-1 associational evidence as if it supported rung-2 interventional conclusions, a move whose validity is rarely tested.

arXiv AI
Jul 15

A Threshold Exceedance Framework for CBRN Uplift Evaluation in Frontier Language Models

arXiv:2607. 12200v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As frontier language models advance, policymakers and model developers need methods for assessing whether model access materially increases a non-expert actor's ability to plan high-consequence Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) misuse relative to public tools alone.

By Rahul Gupta, Abhinav Mohanty, Payal Motwani, Venkatesh Saligrama, Satyapriya Krishna, Connor Harris, Gary Anthony Ackerman, Brandon Behlendorf, Tom Hobson, Theodore Wilson, Spyros Matsoukas