arXiv:2606. 17553v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Geographic tipping points in ecosystems, climate subsystems, or ice sheets pose severe challenges for localized early warning.
By Zhaoyuan Yu, Zhangyong Liang
arXiv:2501. 02672v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Granger causality (GC) is widely used to infer directed relationships in time-series data.
By S. A. Adedayo
The paper presents an ensemble Kalman–Bucy smoother (EnKBS) for continuous‑time data assimilation of nonlinear dynamical systems, reconstructing conditional distributions from ensemble moments without needing tangent‑linear or adjoint models. It demonstrates that EnKBS achieves exact smoothing mean and covariance in the infinite‑ensemble limit for linear‑Gaussian systems and incorporates regularization techniques like covariance localization and inflation for high‑dimensional problems. The method is applied to Bayesian inference of causal relationships in a dyadic trigger‑feedback model and to an iterative learning algorithm that uncovers the structure and hidden parameters of a reduced‑order model of midlatitude atmospheric circulation, all with small ensembles under partial observations.
By Zhang Jiang (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Marios Andreou (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Sebastian Reich (University of Potsdam), Nan Chen (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
arXiv:2602. 13847v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A central challenge across science and engineering is to build data-driven reduced-order models of turbulent dynamical systems that reproduce stationary statistics, predict responses to external perturbations, and remain practical for real-world applications.
By Fabrizio Falasca, Laure Zanna
arXiv:2607. 18620v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper develops temporal-causal unity (TCU), a framework connecting a process-philosophical thesis -- time is the ordered unfolding of causal change -- to an operational model of cognitive and social dynamics.
By Jian Liu, Dong Sun
arXiv:2608. 03715v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mean-reverting dynamics are pervasive in finance, and the Cox--Ingersoll--Ross (CIR) process is a standard model for the time series they produce, from short rates to credit default swap (CDS) spreads.
By Andreas Sauter, Sumit Sourabh, Drona Kandhai, Erman Acar