arXiv:2607. 18620v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper develops temporal-causal unity (TCU), a framework connecting a process-philosophical thesis -- time is the ordered unfolding of causal change -- to an operational model of cognitive and social dynamics.
arXiv:2510. 21889v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal inference identifies cause-and-effect relationships between variables.
arXiv:2609.01048v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Across the full Pythia suite (160M-12B, eight checkpoints, four task families), a linear probe can read a target variable from the residual stream as...
arXiv:2606. 16730v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal self-attention is a coupling mechanism: each token's hidden state is updated by a learned mixture of preceding tokens at the same timescale.
arXiv:2606. 18694v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A network of oscillators that synchronizes perfectly computes nothing further, so an attention architecture built from synchronization must locate its computation in structured departures from agreement.
arXiv:2609.01108v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: TRACE (Math & Lienhart, arXiv:2602.01135) reads causal graphs over event types out of a pretrained autoregressive sequence model by thresholding a per-...
The paper presents RCBNB-MB, a causal discovery algorithm that relaxes the assumption of a single, time‑consistent causal structure in time series. It identifies latent causal regimes—subsets of time points where a stable causal graph holds—and iteratively segments the series to recover both regime transitions and the corresponding causal graphs using Markov blankets. The authors provide theoretical guarantees and demonstrate through simulations and real IT monitoring data that RCBNB-MB outperforms baseline methods in detecting regime changes and their causal structures.
arXiv:2501. 02672v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Granger causality (GC) is widely used to infer directed relationships in time-series data.
arXiv:2607. 27263v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science.
arXiv:2608. 19831v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal Bayesian networks (CBNs) and structural causal models (SCMs) are the dominant frameworks for graphical causal reasoning, but they cannot adequately represent all real-world causal systems.
The paper presents a framework for causal attribution in agentic AI systems, outlining estimators and conditions where they fail. It distinguishes between marginal total effects and common‑random‑number total effects, introduces a natural direct effect under pinned downstreams, and derives a coupling method to keep direct effects estimable. The authors also propose a traceability specification to meet upcoming regulatory requirements for high‑risk AI systems.
arXiv:2608. 11797v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Model merging by task arithmetic works until it doesn't, and the field diagnoses why with magnitudes: layerwise representation bias, deviations from cross-task linearity, parameter overlap.
arXiv:2607. 00267v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A central goal of science is to produce valid explanations of complex systems: high-level causal accounts that faithfully reflect the behavior of lower-level mechanisms.