arXiv Machine Learning By Siddhartha R Dalal, Vishal Misra, Abhay Parekh

Bayesian Wind Tunnels for Model Selection

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

arXiv:2607. 19379v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prior work has shown that transformers can perform exact Bayesian filtering within a fixed hypothesis class.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 1

Calibration, Not Compilation: Detecting and Repairing Misspecified Probabilistic Programs Written by Language Models

arXiv:2606. 31630v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Language models increasingly write probabilistic programs (in NumPyro, Stan, or Pyro), but a program that compiles, runs, and passes every unit test can still be \emph{statistically} wrong -- a Gaussian likelihood for heavy-tailed data, a Poisson for over-dispersed counts, an invalid prior support, or a pathological parameterization.

By Jian Xu, Delu Zeng, John Paisley, Qibin Zhao
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 24

LLMs are Bayesian, In Expectation, Not in Realization

arXiv:2507. 11768v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayesian accounts of in-context learning face a direct objection: exact posterior predictives for exchangeable data are invariant to task-preserving order, yet transformers change next-token probabilities when the same examples are serialized differently.

By Leon Chlon, Fatima Sheaib, Zein Khamis, Maggie Chlon, Mahdi El Zein, MarcAntonio M. Awada