arXiv Statistics ML By Giada Badaracco, Sean Benevedes, Christina Reissel, Philip Harris, Gaia Grosso

An end-to-end framework for uncertainty-aware validation of generative models

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The paper introduces SIGMA, an end‑to‑end framework that couples density estimation with principled uncertainty quantification for generative models. By using Gaussian mixture models and treating uncertainties as nuisance parameters in a new goodness‑of‑fit test, SIGMA converts a standard point‑null test into a composite test that accounts for statistical error of the fit. The authors demonstrate that incorporating uncertainties allows the same model to be trusted on test sets up to an order of magnitude larger than with conventional methods, using both a toy two‑dimensional example and a collider physics benchmark.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 5

Reliability of Probabilistic Emulation of Physical Systems

The paper compares two main strategies for producing probabilistic forecasts of physical systems: generative models (e.g., diffusion or flow matching) and ensembles of deterministic models trained with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). It introduces a framework that evaluates both methods on diverse 2‑D spatiotemporal systems, measuring empirical coverage of predictive intervals, accuracy, and computational efficiency. The study finds that CRPS‑trained ensembles generally provide more reliable uncertainties and faster inference, while generative models trained in ambient space can match coverage but at higher latency. The authors also release AutoCast, a modular framework for both approaches, and AutoSim, a dataset generation tool.

By Sam F. Greenbury, Radka Jersakova, Paolo Conti, Marjan Famili, Christopher Iliffe Sprague, Edwin Brown, Farhan Feroz, Jason D. McEwen