arXiv Machine Learning

A trust layer for fast pedestal-stability surrogates: calibrated error bars, out-of-distribution alarms and few-shot recalibration

The paper presents a model‑agnostic trust layer for machine‑learning surrogates of linear peeling‑ballooning stability, adding calibrated error bars, out‑of‑distribution alarms, and few‑shot recalibration. Experiments on JET‑like equilibria, BOUT++ surrogates, and SPARC/DIII‑D data show that the trust layer maintains nominal coverage, flags unseen cases, and restores accuracy with minimal additional simulations. The approach enables rapid, reliable stability screening for new fusion device designs.

arXiv AI
Sep 25

Revalidation Beats Stateful Routing for Scientific Surrogates Under Distribution Shift

The study introduces RegimeShift‑Surrogates, a streaming benchmark that tests surrogate models across eight tasks and multiple regimes. It compares revalidation—choosing the model with lowest current‑window validation loss—to stateful adaptive controllers and finds that revalidation consistently outperforms stateful methods, achieving lower mean log regret in most task‑scenario combinations. The results suggest that fresh validation evidence is more valuable than carrying over past evidence when dealing with distribution shifts.

By Harshil Lodhiya
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4

When May a Model Replace the Experiment? Audits, Licenses, and the Price of Trust in Surrogate-Driven Design

arXiv:2608. 01378v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Design campaigns in chemistry, materials science, and machine learning share a bottleneck: determining how good a candidate truly is requires an expensive evaluation - an experiment, a first-principles simulation, or a full training run.

By Shuangxiu (Max), Ma (Zachary), Wenhe (Zachary), Zhao
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 2

Wrong Operator or Blind Design? A Reference-Free Diagnostic for Physics-Informed Coefficient Learning

The paper introduces a reference‑free diagnostic for physics‑informed neural networks that learn partial differential equation coefficients from noisy data. It presents three tests—an information‑matrix residual test, a heterogeneity statistic across window refits, and a Fisher‑rank statistic on the design—that can detect whether the operator used in the model is incorrect or whether the design is blind to certain rates, all without retraining the network. The authors demonstrate the method on a parabolic benchmark with 2 % noise, showing that the diagnostics reliably flag misspecified operators and blind designs while remaining silent when the model is correctly specified.

By Eric Fock
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 16

SWB-DM: A Calibrated Sliced-Wasserstein-Barycenter Aggregator with Delayed-Momentum Caching for Byzantine-Robust Federated Learning under Partial Participation

The paper introduces SWB-DM, a Byzantine‑robust federated learning aggregator that treats each slice of a client update as a one‑dimensional distribution, computes a trimmed Wasserstein barycenter across clients, and uses a medoid‑based gauge‑fixing step to recover coordinate identity. It further incorporates delayed‑momentum caching to decouple robustness from the specific clients sampled each round. Extensive experiments on CIFAR‑10, CIFAR‑100, FEMNIST, and a 500‑client scalability run reveal distinct failure modes of existing defenses and demonstrate that SWB‑DM achieves significant gains, especially when compared under equal round budgets.

By Saranraj S, Saranya M S, Alex David S, Ajay Kumar A
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 24

Probabilistic and Geometry Aware Neural Surrogate of Scrape Off Layer Plasma Simulations

The paper presents a probabilistic neural surrogate for scrape‑off‑layer (SOL) plasma simulations in tokamaks. By mapping the curvilinear SOLPS‑ITER mesh to three fixed‑size image tensors, the authors preserve geometric adjacency and enable a convolutional network to process the mesh without loss of information. A conditional flow‑matching model is trained on this representation, producing efficient, scalable predictions that capture multiple plausible outcomes—such as distinct hot and cold modes—near the divertor detachment transition and correctly recover known bifurcations in synthetic data.

By Gabriele Gianuzzo, Stefan Dasbach, Fleur Hendriks, Sven Wiesen, Vlado Menkovski