Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Series
arXiv:2606. 17014v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Joint prediction sets for multivariate time series should control a single event while adapting to cross-coordinate dependence.
The paper introduces a new representation‑adaptive kernel class that, on a fixed sample, yields a union of reproducing‑kernel Hilbert‑space ellipsoids instead of a single ellipsoid. It defines a minimum‑trace common covariance dominating the empirical union generated by Brownian kernel ladders, and derives exact formulations, statistical and computational consequences, and a universal Gaussian‑complexity bound. The work further develops geometric reductions, deterministic depth laws, and exact empirical Kolmogorov‑width formulas, providing both lower and upper certificates for covariance certification and illustrating the distinction between successful covariance certification and predictive selection.
arXiv:2606. 17014v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Joint prediction sets for multivariate time series should control a single event while adapting to cross-coordinate dependence.
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arXiv:2606. 30523v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Covariance matrices serve as compact descriptors of feature distributions in many machine-learning pipelines, including domain adaptation and Gaussian embeddings.
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arXiv:2608. 08826v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive procedures must work without nuisance information an oracle may use, such as a gradient scale or smoothness index, and robust procedures may have to answer queries whose coordinate and inspection time are chosen only after the data are seen.