arXiv:2607. 01171v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sample-based generative models are increasingly used for probabilistic forecasting in high-stakes decision settings, yet their training objectives are blind to the decision maker's cost structure.
arXiv:2502. 04646v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Weighted sampling -- sampling from a probability density function (PDF) proportional to the product of a base PDF and a weight function -- is a fundamental technique with wide-ranging applications in variance reduction, biased sampling, data augmentation, and more.
arXiv:2607. 05830v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The increasing uncertainty from flexible demand and renewable generation has made distributionally robust optimization (DRO) an important tool for robust power system dispatch.
arXiv:2606. 27711v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a neural network-based framework for learning time series estimators through a process we term decision-theoretic pretraining.
arXiv:2606. 05649v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Scenario generation is a critical component in stochastic programming (SP), as it directly influences the quality of decision-making under uncertainty.
arXiv:2606. 19587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a scalable method for training prediction (machine learning) models in the predict-then-optimize paradigm, where model outputs serve as coefficients for a subsequent linear optimization task.
arXiv:2606. 01081v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision-focused learning (DFL) trains predictive models by optimizing downstream decision quality rather than standalone prediction accuracy.
The paper introduces prequential posteriors, a Bayesian approach that uses a predictive‑sequential loss function to update deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) when new data arrive. By adopting a consistency notion suitable for model misspecification, the authors prove that both the loss minimizer and the posterior concentrate on parameters with optimal predictive performance. Scalable inference is achieved with parallelisable waste‑free sequential Monte Carlo samplers that employ preconditioned gradient kernels, and the method is validated on synthetic and real meteorological time‑series data.
The paper presents a method that uses Constrained Bayesian Optimization (CBO) to minimize the energy consumption of machine learning models while ensuring their generalization performance stays above a specified threshold. By treating energy usage as the primary objective and performance as a constraint, the authors demonstrate that CBO can reduce training energy costs on both regression and classification tasks without sacrificing predictive accuracy.
arXiv:2609.37065v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision-making under uncertainty often relies on predicted parameters, yet accurate prediction does not necessarily lead to good operational decisions...
arXiv:2604. 22328v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operations.
arXiv:2608. 20025v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting models are widely used for time series forecasting in domains such as energy systems, finance, medicine, and transportation.
arXiv:2608. 09335v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multistage stochastic model predictive control (MPC) handles uncertainty by optimizing over a scenario tree, a finite branching approximation of future outcomes constructed from sampled forecasts.