The paper examines how the shape of sentiment—how positive or negative tones are sequenced—within ECB and Fed press conferences predicts policy outcomes. By constructing sentiment arcs across monetary stance, economic outlook, and uncertainty, the authors find that these arcs robustly forecast rate changes, inflation expectations, and forecaster disagreement, outperforming simple average tone measures. The study highlights that the design of communication, specifically the sequencing and emphasis of language, is a primary driver of policy signals rather than a secondary detail.
By Martin Feldkircher, M\'arton Kardos, Kristoffer Laigaard Nielbo
arXiv:2608. 07251v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper documents an applied natural-language-processing framework for measuring the tone of Brazilian Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) statements.
By Gabriel de Macedo Santos
arXiv:2605. 30363v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Regime shifts in financial markets reorganise the joint dynamics of asset prices and macro variables, breaking any single-regime calibration.
By Mingxuan Yi, Vidal Mehra, Jing Chen, John Cartlidge
arXiv:2604. 00878v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Actor-level stance detection aims to determine an author expressed position toward specific geopolitical actors mentioned or implicated in a text.
By Abdullah Al Shafi, Md. Milon Islam, Sk. Imran Hossain, K. M. Azharul Hasan
The paper presents the CDSP (context-conditional deliberation signal pipeline), which transforms investment committee meeting transcripts into structured predictive features. CDSP segments transcripts into topical chunks, assigns asset‑class context labels via a large language model, maps financial keywords to a taxonomy, and adds sentiment polarity and mention frequency features. Using these engineered features on 48 monthly meetings, the best model—combining sentence embeddings with CDSP features—achieves 73% accuracy and a 0.73 F1 score, outperforming a simple stock‑choice baseline, though the improvement is not statistically significant.
By Vivek Batra, Kristin Chen, Sanjiv Das, Samuel Judge, Harshad Khadilkar, Sukrit Mittal, Amir Nasrollahzadeh, Daniel Ostrov, Jacob Sisk
The paper evaluates Jev, a specialized decision model, on stance detection tasks using the VAST (English) and ZS-CSD (Chinese) datasets. Jev matches GPT‑5.6 and outperforms other general‑purpose LLMs on VAST, but lags behind stronger LLMs on ZS‑CSD, especially in distinguishing favor from against. The authors suggest that Jev’s limitations may stem from difficulties in understanding reply relationships and stance direction rather than conversation length.
By Xing Li, Jinzhong Ning, Yijia Zhang, Liang Yang, Hongfei Lin
arXiv:2603. 23841v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: While Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as primary sources of information, their potential for political bias may impact their objectivity.
By Rohan Khetan, Ashna Khetan
arXiv:2609.27165v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to measure public value orientations from long social media posts, yet such posts often mix backgr...
By Yuhe Wu, Rui Qian, Guangyu Wang, Yuran Chen, Yuanchao Zhu, Junjie Yang, Zhengheng Li, Jiulin Cai, Tianyi Zhang, Zihan Dong, Jiaxin Liu, Yujie Chen, Guang Zhang
arXiv:2607. 24191v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conversational stance detection has shifted from static text analysis to dynamic multimodal modeling.
By Heyan Chai, Xin Li, Wenjie Wang, Jianyang Qin, Chaoyang Li, Lu Wang, Hao Chen, Qing Liao
arXiv:2606. 24950v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial decision-making is contextual: forecasting prices, valuing companies, and assessing event exposure weigh price history, accounting fundamentals, macroeconomic regime, and contemporaneous text.
By Patara Trirat, Jin Myung Kwak, Jay Heo, Heejun Lee, Sung Ju Hwang
arXiv:2607. 04690v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce PAST-TIDE, our stance detection system addressing both subtasks of the StanceNakba Shared Task at NakbaNLP@LREC-COLING 2026.
By Md. Shakhoyat Rahman Shujon, MD Jahid Hasan Jim, Md. Milon Islam, Md Rezwanul Haque, Fakhri Karray
MoPrO‑SD is a stance‑specific prompt optimization framework that breaks prompts into semantic modules and refines them sequentially with LLM feedback. It evaluates three refinement strategies—instruction‑only, instruction with reasoning, and instruction with per‑example reasoning—using class‑conditioned errors to improve stance detection. The authors also release VaccineStance, a new human‑annotated benchmark for vaccine stance detection, and demonstrate that MoPrO‑SD outperforms human‑written base prompts across multiple datasets and open‑weight LLMs.
By Meysam Sabbaghan, Nikesh Gyawali, Arman Zareian Jahromi, Sebastian Loera-Lozano, Doina Caragea, Cornelia Caragea