The paper introduces Delta-Consistent Scoring (DCS), an annotation‑free method that uses large language model representations to produce continuous monetary‑policy stance scores. DCS jointly learns absolute stance for each FOMC statement and relative shifts between consecutive statements, enforcing consistency through a delta‑consistency objective. The approach outperforms supervised probes and LLM‑as‑judge baselines, achieving up to 71.1% accuracy on sentence‑level hawkish‑dovish classification and producing meeting‑level scores that correlate strongly with inflation indicators and Treasury yield movements.
By Yixuan Tang, Yi Yang
arXiv:2608. 07251v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper documents an applied natural-language-processing framework for measuring the tone of Brazilian Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) statements.
By Gabriel de Macedo Santos
Large language models (LLMs) can synthesize financial narratives but may express high confidence when evidence is sparse, stale, or contradictory. This failure is especially consequential in forecasting, where filings, news, prices, volume, and technical signals can disagree.
Large language models are increasingly used as decision aids whose probability judgments shape downstream choices. Whether those judgments carry a systematic directional tilt has been hard to detect: calibration metrics aggregate unsigned errors, and naturalistic uncertainty offers no ground-truth probability.
The paper evaluates twelve financial sentiment models—including dictionary-based methods, finance-specific transformers, and open-source large language models—using linguistic and economic validity criteria. General-purpose LLMs match finance-specific transformers in classification performance but do not yield stronger economic relationships. While several models correlate with earnings surprises, none shows a significant link to next‑day stock returns, and performance is strongest for large earnings beats or misses.
By Arslan Bisharat, Oudom Hean
The paper presents the CDSP (context-conditional deliberation signal pipeline), which transforms investment committee meeting transcripts into structured predictive features. CDSP segments transcripts into topical chunks, assigns asset‑class context labels via a large language model, maps financial keywords to a taxonomy, and adds sentiment polarity and mention frequency features. Using these engineered features on 48 monthly meetings, the best model—combining sentence embeddings with CDSP features—achieves 73% accuracy and a 0.73 F1 score, outperforming a simple stock‑choice baseline, though the improvement is not statistically significant.
By Vivek Batra, Kristin Chen, Sanjiv Das, Samuel Judge, Harshad Khadilkar, Sukrit Mittal, Amir Nasrollahzadeh, Daniel Ostrov, Jacob Sisk