Causal Foundation Models (CFMs) are pretrained neural networks designed to estimate causal quantities—such as the average treatment effect—across new datasets using in‑context learning, eliminating the need for bespoke pipelines or model updates. The paper introduces CFMs, reviews foundational concepts in causal inference and machine learning, and provides practical code examples and Jupyter notebooks to illustrate their application.
By Christopher Stith, Hossein Rahmani, Jesse C. Cresswell
arXiv:2507. 20993v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study how to learn treatment policies from multimodal electronic health records (EHRs) that consist of tabular data and clinical text.
By Henri Arno, Thomas Demeester
The paper introduces a new framework for identifying average dose-response functions in the presence of unmeasured confounding by using instrumental variables. It defines a uniform regular weighting function and partitions the treatment space into open sets where local identification is possible. For estimation, the authors propose an augmented inverse probability weighted score within a debiased machine learning setting, along with practical guidance for constructing weighting functions, falsification tests for the additive IV condition, and asymptotic theory for kernel regression or empirical risk minimization estimators.
By Shuyuan Chen, Peng Zhang, Yifan Cui
arXiv:2608. 03085v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal inference has traditionally centered on scalar outcomes: whether a patient recovers, how much a worker earns, or how many visits a website receives.
By Kevin Christian Wibisono, Yixin Wang
arXiv:2601.00287v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: The Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA) includes the condition that there are no multiple versions of treatment in causal inferenc...
By Kohei Yoshikawa, Shuichi Kawano
arXiv:2606. 03332v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation.
By Roman Plaud, Alexandre Perez-Lebel, Antoine Saillenfest, Thomas Bonald, Marine Le Morvan, Ga\"el Varoquaux, Matthieu Labeau
arXiv:2608.22024v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Estimating heterogeneous single and interaction treatment effects from observational data under multiple simultaneous treatments is crucial for decis...
By Yuki Murakami, Takumi Hattori, Kohsuke Kubota
arXiv:2609.06294v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) enables efficient targeting of interventions, but many applications have limited experimental s...
By Maitreyi Swaroop, Shikha Bhat, Samantha Rodriguez, Tamar Krishnamurti, Bryan Wilder
arXiv:2607. 10540v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a two-stage estimator for structural mediation parameters that combines deep representation learning with G-estimation under the "no essential heterogeneity" (NEH) assumption.
By Roberto Faleh, Sofia Morelli, Holger Brandt
arXiv:2604. 23107v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal effect estimation from observational data requires careful adjustment for confounding.
By Lei Wang, Debashis Ghosh
The paper tackles the problem of estimating causal effects when an unobserved confounder is present. It assumes a single, possibly multi‑dimensional proxy variable for the confounder and knowledge of the mechanism that generates this proxy. Under the Single Proxy Identifiability of Causal Effects (SPICE) assumption, the authors prove that the error mechanism is complete and causal effects are identifiable, extending prior proxy‑based results to continuous, multi‑dimensional settings and more flexible functional forms. They also introduce SPICE‑Net, a neural‑network‑based framework for estimating causal effects applicable to both discrete and continuous treatments.
By Silvan Vollmer, Niklas Pfister, Sebastian Weichwald
The paper proposes a method for estimating treatment effects using AI-generated predictions as surrogates, applied to paired before-and-after measurements for each treated individual. By comparing AI predictions before and after treatment, the approach can identify the average treatment effect on the treated under certain technical assumptions, even when clinical outcomes are never observed for treated subjects. When assumptions are questionable, the authors introduce prediction‑powered inference that corrects bias with a small set of observed outcomes, and validate the method with synthetic and cardio‑oncology data.
By Frances Dean, Anna Neufeld, Joshua Barrios, Geoffrey H Tison, Ahmed Alaa