arXiv Machine Learning

Thompson Sampling Is 2-Competitive for Mistakes

arXiv:2607. 12389v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We consider Bayesian bandit models and prove that Thompson sampling makes at most twice the expected number of mistakes (selections of a suboptimal arm) as any other policy.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 25

Exact Bayes Regret and Asymptotic Optimality in High-Dimensional Gaussian Bandits

The paper analyzes Bayesian linear bandits with isotropic Gaussian parameters, independent Gaussian arms, and Gaussian reward noise when the time horizon scales with the dimension. It derives explicit limits for the normalized posterior uncertainty and parameter overlaps, yielding exact regret curves for several policies—including Thompson sampling, posterior‑mean greedy selection, and scaled‑covariance variants. The results show that posterior‑mean greedy selection achieves the optimal Bayes regret, while Thompson sampling incurs a strictly larger leading regret whose ratio to greedy lies between one and two, approaching two for long horizons.

By Prakhar Singhvi (Abstract Math Institute), Yi Zou (Abstract Math Institute), Abhishek Bhattacharjee (Abstract Math Institute)
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 18

Odds-Ratio Thompson Sampling: A Specification and Design Guide for Contrast-Based Multi-Armed Bandits

The paper introduces Odds‑Ratio Thompson Sampling (OR‑TS), a method for batched multi‑armed bandits that updates the joint posterior over log‑odds contrasts and refits the shared level in each batch, rather than carrying over absolute reward rates. It presents a Bayesian bandit agent with controls for decay of past evidence and aggressiveness of allocation, and evaluates OR‑TS against traditional absolute‑rate memory across 86 public A/B series and synthetic environments. Results show that when the shared level varies significantly, OR‑TS outperforms absolute‑rate memory, reducing regret and ensuring the best arm receives more traffic, while also handling cases where contrasts themselves shift.

By Sulgi Kim