arXiv Machine Learning

Your Autoregressive Model Already Reveals the Causal Graph

arXiv:2602. 01135v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Autoregressive models trained via next-token prediction implicitly learn the conditional independence structure of their data-generating process.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 16

SDVDiag: Multimodal Causal Discovery for Online Diagnosis in Software-defined Vehicles

arXiv:2606. 15559v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The transition toward software-defined vehicles concentrates an increasing share of vehicle functionality into distributed software services, where failures propagate through service dependencies and the surface symptom is often several causal hops away from the underlying defect.

By Matthias Wei{\ss}, Athreya Hosahalli Prakash, Falk Dettinger, Nasser Jazdi, Michael Weyrich
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4

Large Causal Models for Temporal Causal Discovery

arXiv:2602. 18662v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset.

By Nikolaos Kougioulis, Nikolaos Gkorgkolis, MingXue Wang, Bora Caglayan, Dario Simionato, Andrea Tonon, Ioannis Tsamardinos
arXiv AI
Jul 14

CDFM: Towards a General-Purpose Causal Discovery Foundation Model

arXiv:2607. 11508v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery, the process of recovering underlying causal structures from observational data, is a fundamental pursuit across scientific disciplines.

By Jie Qiao, Ruichu Cai, Zijian Li, Weilin Chen, Pengfei Hua, Boyan Xu, Zhengming Chen, Zhifeng Hao, Peng Cui
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

Causal Discovery on Irregular Time Series

arXiv:2607. 18226v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal discovery methods have shown strong performance in temporal systems, but they typically rely on regular and discrete lag structures, limiting their applicability to regularly sampled data.

By Martim Penim, Ricardo Ribeiro Pereira, Jacopo Bono, Hugo Ferreira, M\'ario A. T. Figueiredo, Pedro Bizarro
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 5

From Causal Discovery to Dynamic Causal Inference in Neural Time Series

arXiv:2603. 20980v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time-varying causal models provide a powerful framework for studying dynamic scientific systems, yet most existing approaches assume that the underlying causal network is known a priori - an assumption rarely satisfied in real-world domains where causal structure is uncertain, evolving, or only indirectly observable.

By Dmitry Zaytsev, Valentina Kuskova, Michael Coppedge
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 26

Use What You Know: Causal Foundation Models with Partial Graphs

arXiv:2602. 14972v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Estimating causal quantities traditionally relies on bespoke estimators tailored to specific assumptions.

By Arik Reuter, Anish Dhir, Cristiana Diaconu, Jake Robertson, Ole Ossen, Frank Hutter, Adrian Weller, Mark van der Wilk, Bernhard Sch\"olkopf
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 14

DAG-FM: A Foundation Model for Causal Discovery under Heterogeneous Causal Mechanisms

arXiv:2607. 11510v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal discovery from observational tabular data remains fundamentally challenging, primarily due to the heterogeneity of underlying causal mechanisms and the high-dimensional combinatorial search space of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs).

By Yikang Chen, Zhengkang Guan, Haoyuan Qian, Peng Cui, Yi Yang, Kun Kuang