Large language models (LLMs), and the agents built on top of them, are now benchmarked heavily on whether they can finish a task -- fix a bug, drive a browser, operate a GUI. A complementary social ability, namely how well a model understands and forecasts the way real social events unfold, has barely been measured.
arXiv:2606. 11816v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information.
arXiv:2606. 18686v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting benchmarks for general-purpose AI systems usually inherit the constraints of the real world: outcomes resolve slowly, tail events are rare, and counterfactual questions are difficult to score.
arXiv:2604. 18576v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark.
arXiv:2607. 24573v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) increasingly support decisions about uncertain future events, yet evaluating their ability to forecast real-world outcomes remains difficult.
arXiv:2608. 08055v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language model (LLM) agents that assist users over weeks of conversation must remember what is currently true, not merely what was once said.
arXiv:2607. 11889v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models trained on unrestricted internet corpora inevitably embed information from the future, introducing lookahead bias that compromises the validity of backtests and causal inference in finance and the social sciences.
arXiv:2608. 03031v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting is fundamental to decision-making in complex systems, where future dynamics are influenced not only by historical observations but also by evolving contextual features.
Large language models fine-tuned for forecasting can be accurate yet poorly calibrated, and their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may not faithfully reflect the evidence behind a forecast. We ask whether internal representations offer a more direct window into both.
arXiv:2606. 01498v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series data inform critical decisions across many real-world domains.
arXiv:2510. 27544v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Temporal reasoning involves understanding how systems evolve over time through input-driven state transitions.
arXiv:2608. 16795v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Systems that generate scientific research questions are evaluated today by expert scores, LLM-as-judge ratings, or curated case studies -- all subjective, none falsifiable.
arXiv:2608. 14270v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series analysis in high-stakes domains relies on recurring data releases, where new observations can alter the evidence base and the validity of later conclusions.