The paper demonstrates that large language models (LLMs) used for forecasting real‑world events can be manipulated by simply publishing new articles, even without direct access to the model or its retriever. By injecting a small number of targeted news pieces into a common crawl corpus, an adversary can flip over half of the forecast probabilities and significantly degrade forecast accuracy. The study also shows that common defense strategies can be cheaply bypassed, highlighting the vulnerability of probabilistic LLM judgments to information‑supply‑chain attacks.
arXiv:2607. 26339v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems ground large language models (LLMs) in external corpora, but this reliance exposes them to corpus poisoning: maliciously injected passages that manipulate retrieved evidence.
arXiv:2607. 23838v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) lets a large language model answer questions using documents retrieved from an external knowledge base at query time.
arXiv:2608. 02678v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems are vulnerable to corpus poisoning: an attacker who inserts a crafted document into the retrieval corpus can steer the underlying large language model (LLM) toward an attacker-chosen wrong answer.
Large language models (LLMs), and the agents built on top of them, are now benchmarked heavily on whether they can finish a task -- fix a bug, drive a browser, operate a GUI. A complementary social ability, namely how well a model understands and forecasts the way real social events unfold, has barely been measured.
Large language models fine-tuned for forecasting can be accurate yet poorly calibrated, and their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may not faithfully reflect the evidence behind a forecast. We ask whether internal representations offer a more direct window into both.
arXiv:2406.00083v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) enhances Large Language Models (LLMs) by retrieving relevant information from external knowledge bases t...
The paper introduces GEO Defender, a two‑stage defense system designed to protect generative search engines from malicious Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) attacks that rewrite web documents to manipulate generated answers. GEO Defender comprises a Shield Reranker, which learns a defensive residual to demote GEO‑rewritten documents while maintaining relevance, and a Training‑Free Shield Generation component that creates a natural‑language library guiding the target LLM’s source usage during inference. Experiments on both closed‑source and open‑source large language models show that GEO Defender dramatically lowers attack success rates from 50.32% to 6.20%, preserves over 94% of benign evidence usage, and maintains answer quality while generalizing to unseen attacks.
Counter‑GEO‑Bench is a new benchmark that evaluates how well defenses can stop large language models from producing misinformation when faced with generative engine‑optimized (GEO) content. It contains 247 human‑verified queries paired with both information‑preserving and information‑distorting GEO rewrites, and measures attack success rate, false positives, and answer quality across three victim LLMs. The study shows that existing off‑the‑shelf defenses reduce attack success by at most 5.7 %, while a lightweight baseline called C‑GEO Guard cuts success by 47.6 % with minimal loss of utility.
arXiv:2607. 08046v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models fine-tuned for forecasting can be accurate yet poorly calibrated, and their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may not faithfully reflect the evidence behind a forecast.
arXiv:2606. 02643v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG)-enhanced LLM systems, while powerful, introduce substantial inference costs due to the inclusion of an extra multi-stage pipeline that dynamically retrieves and synthesizes information from external knowledge sources.
arXiv:2603. 22934v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) improves large language model applications by grounding generation in retrieved evidence, but also introduces corpus poisoning as a new attack surface.
arXiv:2609.01182v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Flagship language models appear saturated on benchmarks like MMLU (Hendrycks et al., 2021), scoring above 90% - yet benchmarks test only what the exper...