arXiv Statistics ML

Iterative Identification Closure: Amplifying Causal Identifiability in Linear SEMs

arXiv AI
Jun 19

Computational Identifiability

arXiv:2606. 19361v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Identification conditions describe the computability of a target query or parameter of interest as a function of the type and amount of information available.

By Lucius E. J. Bynum, Rajesh Ranganath, Kyunghyun Cho
arXiv AI
Oct 12

Causal Effect Identifiability in Causal Abstractions: A Strict Hierarchy of Criteria

The paper investigates how to determine causal effects when only partial causal information is available, using collections of compatible causal graphs instead of a single fully specified graph. It introduces several formal notions of identifiability for these graph collections and arranges them into a strict hierarchy that clarifies their interrelations. The authors show that a causal effect can be identified across a set of graphs even when no single causal derivation applies uniformly to all of them, thereby exposing gaps and ambiguities in prior work.

By Cl\'ement Yvernes, Marianne Clausel, Emilie Devijver, Eric Gaussier
arXiv Statistics ML
Oct 9

Concomitant DAG Learning: On the Roles of Noise Adaptivity, Sparsity, and Non-negativity

The article discusses recent advances in learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from observational data, highlighting the challenges of enforcing acyclicity and dealing with latent confounding or heterogeneous noise. It reviews the evolution from combinatorial search methods to continuous, score‑based approaches that use smooth acyclicity constraints, and introduces concomitant DAG estimation techniques that jointly infer sparse causal structure and exogenous noise levels to improve robustness under heteroscedasticity and distribution shifts. The tutorial also outlines future research directions such as online, nonlinear, and neural causal discovery.

By Gonzalo Mateos, Samuel Rey, Hamed Ajorlou, Mariano Tepper
arXiv AI
Oct 5

Reasoning Models Are Accurate but Unsound on Identification

The paper introduces CERTID, a formal identification pipeline that uses the sound and complete causal identification algorithm ID to certify whether a causal effect is identifiable from a given graph and query. CERTID also verifies returned formulas against structural causal models with known interventional distributions, mitigating structural leakage and providing grading guarantees. The authors evaluate three frontier reasoning models on 1,200 certified instances, finding that accuracy is a poor proxy for soundness, with false-claim rates on non-identifiable queries varying by seventeen-fold across models.

By Arman Behnam, Binghui Wang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 19

Unsupervised Causal Abstractions Discovery

arXiv:2606. 19594v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal abstractions formalize when a high-level structural causal model (SCM) captures the interventional behavior of a lower-level SCM.

By Th\'eo Saulus, Simon Lacoste-Julien, Dhanya Sridhar
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 19

Structural Causal Bottleneck Models

The paper introduces Structural Causal Bottleneck Models (SCBMs), a new class of structural causal models where high‑dimensional causal effects are mediated by low‑dimensional bottleneck variables. SCBMs allow mechanism‑specific, target‑dependent dimensionality reduction while remaining estimable with standard learning algorithms. The authors prove that bottleneck variables are identifiable up to bijection from observational data, and demonstrate experimentally that using bottlenecks improves identification and finite‑sample efficiency in causal effect estimation for instrumental variables, mediation, and backdoor adjustment.

By Simon Bing, Jonas Wahl, Jakob Runge