arXiv AI
When and Why LLM Causal Priors Help: Closed-Loop Prior Selection for Amortized Causal Inference
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arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 23
ACTIVA: Amortized Causal Effect Estimation via Variational Autoencoders
ACTIVA is a transformer‑based conditional variational autoencoder designed to estimate full interventional distributions from observational data without requiring interventional data, a causal graph, or per‑task fitting. It learns a conditional latent prior that amortizes causal knowledge across diverse training tasks, enabling a single forward pass to handle new causal models drawn from the training distribution. Empirical results on synthetic and biologically realistic gene‑expression simulations show that ACTIVA outperforms correlational baselines, reduces spurious non‑descendant effects, and matches strong amortized baselines, while also validating its theoretical mixture‑of‑distributions property on observationally equivalent models.
arXiv AI
Aug 6
Can Post-Training Transform LLMs into Causal Reasoners?
arXiv:2602. 06337v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal inference is essential for decision-making but remains challenging for non-experts.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 26
Use What You Know: Causal Foundation Models with Partial Graphs
arXiv:2602. 14972v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Estimating causal quantities traditionally relies on bespoke estimators tailored to specific assumptions.
arXiv AI
Jun 17
FoundCause: Causal Discovery with Latent Confounders from Observational Data
arXiv:2606. 17516v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery from observational data remains challenging due to the need to recover directed structure and latent confounding without interventions.
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 11
CausalArena: Benchmarking Causal Discovery in the Foundation Model Era
CausalArena is a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods in the era of foundation models. It unifies synthetic structural causal models (SCMs), semantically grounded SCMs, and formula‑grounded SCMs, while also including real‑world datasets for external validation. Experiments show that performance rankings vary widely across different SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not necessarily transfer to others.
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Sep 10
CausalArena: Benchmarking Causal Discovery in the Foundation Model Era
CausalArena is a unified, evolvable benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods across diverse structural causal models (SCMs). It incorporates synthetic SCMs for controlled structural variation, semantic operational SCMs for human-auditable environments, and formula-grounded SCMs to test discovery under explicit scientific mechanisms, along with real-world datasets for external validity. Experiments show that performance rankings vary significantly across SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not generalize to others, especially in the context of causal discovery foundation models.