arXiv:2603. 20980v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time-varying causal models provide a powerful framework for studying dynamic scientific systems, yet most existing approaches assume that the underlying causal network is known a priori - an assumption rarely satisfied in real-world domains where causal structure is uncertain, evolving, or only indirectly observable.
arXiv:2602. 18662v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset.
arXiv:2507. 11178v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: With the advancement of deep learning technologies, various neural network-based Granger causality models have been proposed.
The paper presents RCBNB-MB, a causal discovery algorithm that relaxes the assumption of a single, time‑consistent causal structure in time series. It identifies latent causal regimes—subsets of time points where a stable causal graph holds—and iteratively segments the series to recover both regime transitions and the corresponding causal graphs using Markov blankets. The authors provide theoretical guarantees and demonstrate through simulations and real IT monitoring data that RCBNB-MB outperforms baseline methods in detecting regime changes and their causal structures.
CausalArena is a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods in the era of foundation models. It unifies synthetic structural causal models (SCMs), semantically grounded SCMs, and formula‑grounded SCMs, while also including real‑world datasets for external validation. Experiments show that performance rankings vary widely across different SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not necessarily transfer to others.
arXiv:2606. 03227v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal discovery with instantaneous effects in multivariate time series is challenging, as the instantaneous structure must be acyclic.
CausalArena is a unified, evolvable benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods across diverse structural causal models (SCMs). It incorporates synthetic SCMs for controlled structural variation, semantic operational SCMs for human-auditable environments, and formula-grounded SCMs to test discovery under explicit scientific mechanisms, along with real-world datasets for external validity. Experiments show that performance rankings vary significantly across SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not generalize to others, especially in the context of causal discovery foundation models.
arXiv:2606. 10607v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery aims to uncover causal structures from observational data, which is crucial for real-world decision-making.
The paper introduces Causal Local States (CLS), a framework that simultaneously infers an approximate Granger‑causal interaction network and forecasts the dynamics of a system. CLS selects, for each node, the smallest set of neighbors that enables near‑optimal prediction, and then combines these local neighborhoods to forecast the entire system. Experiments on three increasingly difficult benchmarks show that CLS reconstructs the underlying networks with high fidelity and achieves forecast accuracy comparable to a model that uses the true network.
The paper introduces TS‑BOSS, a time‑series extension of the Best Order Score Search (BOSS) algorithm for causal structure learning. TS‑BOSS conducts a permutation‑based search over dynamic Bayesian network structures, using grow‑shrink trees to cache intermediate score computations, thereby maintaining scalability and strong empirical performance. The authors provide theoretical guarantees of soundness under suitable assumptions and demonstrate that TS‑BOSS achieves higher adjacency recall than standard constraint‑based methods, especially in high auto‑correlation regimes.
arXiv:2607. 11508v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery, the process of recovering underlying causal structures from observational data, is a fundamental pursuit across scientific disciplines.
arXiv:2605. 26759v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies.
arXiv:2501. 02672v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Granger causality (GC) is widely used to infer directed relationships in time-series data.