arXiv:2607. 22599v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Diffusion models have become a widely used framework for probabilistic time series forecasting, modeling the distribution of future values given an observed history.
Probabilistic multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is crucial for modeling complex dynamical systems. However, existing diffusion-based methods rely on task-specific conditional paradigms that l...
DynG-Diff is a new diffusion-based framework for probabilistic multivariate time‑series forecasting that addresses the challenge of information heterogeneity across variables. It uses a two‑stage training strategy with an unconditional diffusion backbone and introduces a lightweight state‑aware policy network that dynamically adjusts guidance strength based on real‑time variable reliability. The dynamic guidance is mathematically framed as local precision, allowing the model to focus on high‑confidence variables and suppress anomalous noise, leading to competitive performance and robustness on real‑world benchmarks.
arXiv:2608. 14067v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Diffusion models offer a natural way to model uncertainty in time series forecasting, yet their iterative sampling process is often treated as a uniformly beneficial refinement procedure.
arXiv:2607. 17972v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The prevailing inference framework for diffusion models formulates generation fundamentally as a problem of numerical integration.
arXiv:2609.37694v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Diffusion models have recently shown strong potential for probabilistic multivariate time-series forecasting by modeling complex conditional distribu...
The paper introduces Physics‑SIMS‑TS, a conditional diffusion model designed for long‑horizon oil and gas production forecasting. It enforces monotone decline through negative guidance, decline‑curve constraints, and isotonic projection during sampling, and incorporates spatial training augmentation and an ensembled stochastic sampler to produce calibrated predictive distributions. Evaluated on over 35,000 wells across three jurisdictions, Physics‑SIMS‑TS achieves the highest accuracy among diffusion forecasters and matches transformer ensembles, with only a 0.5% increase in mean squared error for monotonicity.
arXiv:2606. 26769v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The adoption of powerful diffusion models is hindered by their significant inference latency.
arXiv:2604.27443v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., firs...
arXiv:2609.38632v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent probabilistic weather forecasters train stochastic predictors with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to generate each ensemble memb...
The adoption of powerful diffusion models is hindered by their significant inference latency. Recent ``cache-then-forecast'' schemes alleviate this issue by accelerating DiTs using derivative-based polynomials, but they suffer from severe quality degradation at high acceleration ratios.
arXiv:2606. 20560v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM reasoning transparency is a critical affordance for understanding model decisions, mitigating misuse and misalignment, and debugging surprising model behaviors.
arXiv:2609.37974v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Masked diffusion models (MDMs) generate text by unmasking several tokens per step, but they are trained and sampled under different conditions. The m...