arXiv Machine Learning

EpiFlow: A framework for improving the utility of wastewater signals for disease forecasting

arXiv:2608. 06671v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Wastewater-based surveillance is an effective tool for disease monitoring and can provide early warning of outbreaks.

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 19

Understanding Key Features of Time Series Foundation Models from Epidemic Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 19560v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need.

By Alireza Jafari, Judy Fox, Geoffrey C. Fox, Madhav Marathe, Aniruddha Adiga

llms

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 30

TREA-Net: A Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for Dengue Incidence Forecasting

arXiv:2607. 26854v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate multi-week dengue forecasting supports timely vector-control interventions, outbreak preparedness, and healthcare resource allocation.

By Inesh Shukla, Madhurima Panja, Tanujit Chakraborty, Chittaranjan Hens

arXiv AI

Jun 6

EpiEvolve: Self-Evolving Agents for Streaming Pandemic Forecasting under Regime Shifts

arXiv:2606. 05513v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Epidemic LLM forecasters are usually trained and evaluated as static supervised models, whereas operational pandemic forecasting is a streaming process in which labels arrive after predictions and disease regimes shift over time.

By Yiming Lu, Sihang Zeng, Zhengxu Tang, Max Lau, Fei Liu, Wei Jin

llms agents

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 15

Auditable Context-Aware HFMD Forecasting with Structured LLM Agents

arXiv:2511. 23276v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Effective HFMD surveillance requires forecasts capturing both time-series patterns and contextual drivers such as school calendars, weather, and policy or surveillance reports.

By Joongwon Chae, Runming Wang, Chen Xiong, Gong Yunhan, Lian Zhang, Ji Jiansong, Dongmei Yu, Peiwu Qin

llms agents

arXiv Machine Learning

Aug 5

Cross-Country Learning for National Infectious Disease Forecasting Using European Data

arXiv:2601. 20771v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate forecasting of infectious disease incidence is critical for public health planning and timely intervention.

By Zacharias Komodromos, Kleanthis Malialis, Artemis Kontou, Panayiotis Kolios

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 7

Deep Generative Spatiotemporal Engression for Probabilistic Forecasting of Epidemics

arXiv:2603. 07108v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions.

By Rajdeep Pathak, Tanujit Chakraborty

benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 1

How (Not) to Hybridize Neural and Mechanistic Models for Epidemiological Forecasting

arXiv:2602. 06323v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction.

By Yiqi Su, Ray Lee, Jiaming Cui, Naren Ramakrishnan

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 29

Trustworthy Predictive Distributions for Tail Events with Semiparametric Diagnostic Transport Maps

arXiv:2603. 11229v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning forecast systems are moving beyond point predictions to full predictive distributions for future outcomes y conditional on complex inputs x.

By Elizabeth Cucuzzella, Rafael Izbicki, Ann B. Lee

arXiv Machine Learning

22h ago

Mr.Dec: Daily-Scale Longitudinal Multimodal Modeling for 30-Day Readmission Prediction

arXiv:2608. 16929v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predicting 30-day hospital readmission is essential for assessing patient stability and optimizing healthcare resources.

By Minjun Kim, Jong Hak Moon

llms diffusion multimodal benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 5

Towards Unified and Data-Efficient Prognostics and Health Management with Tabular Foundation Models

arXiv:2606. 05481v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data-driven Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) uses time-varying condition-monitoring data to diagnose system states and estimate remaining useful life in engineered assets.

By Raffael Theiler, Lev Telyatnikov, Leandro Von Krannichfeldt, Olga Fink

llms

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 16

Forecasting Bacterial Antimicrobial Resistance Trends Using Machine Learning on WHO GLASS Surveillance Data: A Retrieval-Augmented Generation Approach for Policy Decision Support

arXiv:2602. 22673v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health threat.

By Md Tanvir Hasan Turja

rag safety

arXiv AI

Jun 3

SL-BiLEM: Structured Learnable Behavior-in-the-Loop Epidemic Modeling for Forecasting and Policy Evaluation

arXiv:2605. 26704v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Epidemic forecasting faces a fundamental challenge: human behavior dynamically responds to disease spread, creating feedback loops that induce distribution shifts at policy intervention points.

By Haochun Wang, Sendong Zhao, Jingbo Wang, Yanrui Du, Ting Liu, Bing Qin

benchmarks

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