arXiv AI By Hang Gao

From Manual Construction to AI-Driven Scenario Emergence: Rethinking Catastrophe Risk Modeling

Read the original on arXiv AI →

The article introduces the TAISE framework, which uses AI weather forecasting models to generate coherent extreme weather sequences at a fraction of the cost of traditional catastrophe risk models. By self‑iteratively producing continuous global atmospheric fields, TAISE captures temporal continuity and cross‑regional correlations that snapshot‑based methods miss. A proof‑of‑concept experiment shows an order‑of‑magnitude reduction in computational cost while maintaining key statistical properties of extreme events.

Machine-generated by The Flow from the publisher's headline and feed description — not written or checked by a human. The full article lives at arXiv AI.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 25

Capturing Unseen Spatial Heat Extremes Through Dependence-Aware Generative Modeling

The paper introduces DeepX-GAN, a deep generative model that captures spatial dependence in rare climate extremes. It can simulate statistically plausible unseen heat extremes—both direct-hit and near-miss events—beyond the observed record. Applied to the Middle East and North Africa, the model shows that unseen heat extremes disproportionately affect vulnerable countries and that future warming could create new persistent hotspots, underscoring the need for spatially adaptive resilience planning.

By Xinyue Liu, Xiao Peng, Shuyue Yan, Yuntian Chen, Dongxiao Zhang, Zhixiao Niu, Hui-Min Wang, Xiaogang He
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 13

Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction

arXiv:2604. 16238v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes.

By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 7

Advancing Subseasonal Forecasting with Machine Learning

The paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that learns to correct historical probabilistic forecasts, thereby reducing systematic errors in subseasonal weather predictions. Applied to leading dynamical and AI models from ECMWF, PBC doubles the AI system’s modest subseasonal skill and improves the operationally-debiased dynamical model for most pressure, temperature, and precipitation targets. In ECMWF’s 2025 real‑time forecasting competition, PBC’s global forecasts ranked first across all weather variables and lead times, outperforming multiple operational and ensemble models.

By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
MIT News AI
Aug 24

Generating scenarios for extreme events, without extreme data

A new algorithm has been developed that can generate scenarios for extreme events, even when there is no historical data on such events. The algorithm is designed to anticipate unprecedented situations that critical infrastructure and global supply chains are least prepared for. By creating these scenarios, the tool aims to help stakeholders better understand and plan for potential disruptions.

By Jennifer Chu | MIT News