Proper Scoring Rules for Right-Censored Survival Data
arXiv:2606. 06393v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Proper scoring rules provide a rigorous theoretical basis for the training and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts.
arXiv:2510. 04421v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Survival analysis provides statistical methods to model the time until an event occurs.
arXiv:2606. 06393v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Proper scoring rules provide a rigorous theoretical basis for the training and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts.
Proper scoring rules provide a rigorous theoretical basis for the training and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts. However, in the presence of right censoring, the event time is only partially observed, rendering conventional scoring rules inapplicable in their standard form.
arXiv:2606. 03689v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Survival Analysis (SA) is a statistical framework that models the time span until some event of interest occurs.
arXiv:2212. 05260v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Proper scoring rules encourage probabilistic predictions that match the true underlying distribution and are central to model evaluation, with increasing relevance in automated workflows such as AutoML.
arXiv:2607. 10466v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Survival models can model time-to-event outcomes using partially observed data.
arXiv:2606. 18281v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are central to treatment decision-making in personalized medicine.
arXiv:2502. 19460v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Dependent censoring occurs when the event time and censoring time are not conditionally independent given the observed covariates.
arXiv:2606. 04564v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched.
The paper introduces a high‑dimensional censored MIDAS logistic regression for forecasting corporate distress, addressing right censoring, high‑dimensional mixed‑frequency predictors, and mixed‑frequency data. It uses inverse probability weighting for censoring, a sparse‑group penalty for estimation, and develops a de‑sparsified estimator with asymptotic theory that accounts for censoring and heavy tails. The method is validated via Monte Carlo simulations and applied to Chinese‑listed firms, with implementation available in the R package Survivalml.
arXiv:2608. 06288v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This work presents a novel attention-based framework for estimating the Individual Probability of Treatment Benefit (IPTB) in survival analysis contexts.
arXiv:2601. 22259v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While tabular foundation models have achieved remarkable success in classification and regression, adapting them to model time-to-event outcomes for survival analysis is non-trivial due to right-censoring, where data observations may end before the event of interest occurs.
arXiv:2608. 16864v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In survival analysis the way covariates act on the risk of an event often differs between early and late failure times, yet hazard- and mean-based summaries collapse this variation into a single number.