The study evaluates probabilistic machine‑learning models for forecasting German grid redispatch volumes under data‑delay constraints. Using 48,242 records from 2021‑2024, boosted‑tree LightGBM with rolling calibration achieved the best performance (nWIS 0.7767), outperforming autoregressive and seasonal baselines. Neural models with zero‑censored outputs performed similarly but revealed undercoverage during high‑volume events.
arXiv:2601.01480v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Traffic forecasting systems rely on fixed sensor networks that frequently exhibit contiguous blackouts. Such outages are usually treated as i...
arXiv:2606. 20918v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate short-term electricity demand forecasting is critical for reliable power system operation, energy market planning, and infrastructure optimization.
District heating energy hubs require reliable heat load forecasts for efficient operational scheduling. Conventional forecasting workflows train system-specific models on historical data, which can become burdensome when networks change through new consumers, retrofits, or changing operating regimes.
arXiv:2608. 20024v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: District heating energy hubs require reliable heat load forecasts for efficient operational scheduling.
arXiv:2609.23701v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting requires accurate central predictions and calibrated uncertainty estimates. This paper presents TEMPER, the Temporal Encode...
arXiv:2608.20024v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: District heating energy hubs require reliable heat load forecasts for efficient operational scheduling. Forecasting models trained on historical da...
arXiv:2607. 12730v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Smart-building load forecasters are often trained offline on dense, multivariate, high-frequency data, but deployment may provide only hourly, feature-limited inputs.
arXiv:2606. 09473v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic forecasters are increasingly learned, yet the baselines they are compared against are often weak or omitted.
arXiv:2609.13840v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A contract-logistics spare-parts operator is paid on order-level service: an order counts only if every requested line is fulfilled, yet forecasters ar...
arXiv:2608. 09971v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Over the past few years, the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting has produced deterministic models whose medium-range skill matches or exceeds that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES).
Probabilistic forecasting requires accurate central predictions and calibrated uncertainty estimates. This paper presents TEMPER, the Temporal Encoder-Masked Probabilistic Ensemble Regressor, a univar...
arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.