arXiv AI

From Critic to Confidence: PPO for Language-Based Quantitative Prediction with Confidence Estimation

arXiv:2607. 12687v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLMs can perform language-based quantitative prediction from unstructured inputs, but remain susceptible to hallucinations and overconfident errors, making it critical to know not only what a model predicts, but when its predictions can be trusted.

arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 23

Calibrated Confidence Expression for Radiology Report Generation

The paper introduces ConRad, a reinforcement learning framework that fine‑tunes large vision‑language models to generate calibrated verbalized confidence estimates for radiology reports. ConRad offers both a single report‑level confidence score and a sentence‑level variant, trained with the GRPO algorithm and logarithmic scoring rewards to encourage truthful self‑assessment. Experiments show significant calibration improvements over existing methods, and clinical evaluation indicates that report‑level scores align well with clinicians’ judgments, enabling targeted review of low‑confidence statements.

By David Bani-Harouni, Chantal Pellegrini, Julian L\"uers, Su Hwan Kim, Markus Baalmann, Benedikt Wiestler, Rickmer Braren, Nassir Navab, Matthias Keicher
arXiv AI
1d ago

Your Language Model is Its Own Critic: Reinforcement Learning with Value Estimation from Actor's Internal States

The paper introduces POISE, a reinforcement learning algorithm that uses a model’s internal states as a value estimator to reduce variance in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). By employing a lightweight probe that reads internal signals during the forward pass, POISE predicts baselines online and uses a cross‑rollout construction to keep gradients unbiased. Experiments on Qwen3‑4B and OLMo3‑7B‑Instruct‑DPO across six domains show POISE outperforms existing RLVR baselines, offering more stable training and a value model that generalizes across tasks and scales with the policy.

By Yunho Choi, Jongwon Lim, Woojin Ahn, Minjae Oh, Jeonghoon Shim, Yohan Jo
arXiv AI
Aug 12

CARE: Confidence-Aware Reasoning for Reliable Medical VQA

arXiv:2608. 10964v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) has enabled medical Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to produce Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning for visual question answering, yet these models suffer from $\textit{confidence miscalibration}$---a systematic gap between expressed certainty and actual diagnostic accuracy that undermines clinical trust.

By Yuetian Du, Yucheng Wang, Zhenyuan Chen, Luyuan Chen, Rongyu Zhang, Jinjian Zhang, Wei Zhou, Zhijie Xu, Ming Kong, Zhan Zhou, Jie Liu, Qiang Zhu
arXiv AI
Sep 17

Rethinking Critic Learning in PPO: Understanding and Mitigating Value Flattening

The paper identifies a failure mode in Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) critics called Value Flattening, where state values vary sharply across intermediate states while critic predictions remain flat. The authors analyze this phenomenon theoretically and empirically, linking it to an implicit variance penalty and redundant updates from temporally correlated states. They propose Sparse Proximal Policy Optimization (SP³O), which applies the value loss to only a few well‑separated states, and demonstrate that this sparse supervision mitigates Value Flattening and improves policy performance on Qwen3‑Base across model sizes and evaluation suites.

By Yizhuo Li, Jianhao Yan, Yun Luo, Zhi Wang, Futing Wang, Rong-Xi Tan, Kanghui Tian, Ganqu Cui, Ning Ding, Peilin Zhao, Yafu Li, Yu Cheng
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 1

CAST: Critique-Aware Supervision for Training Reliable Long-Horizon Tool-Calling Agents

CAST is a critique‑aware training framework that transforms sparse task outcomes into action‑level supervision for both critique learning and policy optimization. By analyzing agent trajectories, CAST synthesizes structured rationales that explain action validity under partial observability, enabling the creation of richer training data. Fine‑tuned Qwen3‑family models trained with CAST show significant reliability gains, outperforming GPT‑OSS‑120B by over 10% on Retail tasks and improving Telehealth performance by 9% in an out‑of‑domain setting.

By Amir Saeidi, Zehua Zhang, Rishitosh Singh, Naman Ahuja, Vivek Gupta, Ali Payani, Gaowen Liu, Jayanth Srinivasa, Chitta Baral