arXiv:2606. 17516v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery from observational data remains challenging due to the need to recover directed structure and latent confounding without interventions.
arXiv:2607. 20696v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose CEDAR (Causal Edge Discovery for Autoregressive Processes), a constraint-based method for lagged causal edge discovery in sparse autoregressive time series.
arXiv:2606. 23880v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: From climate teleconnections to gene regulation, modern time-series datasets encompass tens or hundreds of interacting variables, making causal discovery increasingly challenging.
CausalArena is a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods in the era of foundation models. It unifies synthetic structural causal models (SCMs), semantically grounded SCMs, and formula‑grounded SCMs, while also including real‑world datasets for external validation. Experiments show that performance rankings vary widely across different SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not necessarily transfer to others.
The paper presents RCBNB-MB, a causal discovery algorithm that relaxes the assumption of a single, time‑consistent causal structure in time series. It identifies latent causal regimes—subsets of time points where a stable causal graph holds—and iteratively segments the series to recover both regime transitions and the corresponding causal graphs using Markov blankets. The authors provide theoretical guarantees and demonstrate through simulations and real IT monitoring data that RCBNB-MB outperforms baseline methods in detecting regime changes and their causal structures.
TabCausal is a causal discovery foundation model that learns to map datasets directly to causal graphs by pretraining across diverse causal environments. It uses a dynamic task construction strategy to expose the model to varied graph priors, mechanisms, noise models, dimensions, sample sizes, and intervention regimes, improving transferability from observational and mixed‑interventional data. On large synthetic benchmarks and a new protocol‑guided semantic benchmark, TabCausal outperforms many classical baselines and shows robust structure recovery, especially when interventional evidence is available.
arXiv:2609.23516v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Structural causal models for time series recover contemporaneous and lagged effects, but most methods require complete observation windows and become m...
arXiv:2607. 27263v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science.
CausalArena is a unified, evolvable benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods across diverse structural causal models (SCMs). It incorporates synthetic SCMs for controlled structural variation, semantic operational SCMs for human-auditable environments, and formula-grounded SCMs to test discovery under explicit scientific mechanisms, along with real-world datasets for external validity. Experiments show that performance rankings vary significantly across SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not generalize to others, especially in the context of causal discovery foundation models.
arXiv:2605. 26759v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies.
arXiv:2608. 03868v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal Discovery (CD) from observational data faces two fundamental challenges.
arXiv:2608. 00198v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Environmental time-series causal discovery requires expert decisions about method choice, conditional-independence tests, lag horizons, sample-size adequacy, multiple-testing control, and evidence interpretation.