The paper evaluates four main approaches to scalable nonlinear causal discovery—differentiable, amortized, score‑matching, and combinatorial search—highlighting their distinct accuracy‑runtime trade‑offs. It introduces SPADE, a spline‑based score‑evaluation method that compiles and reuses sufficient statistics, reducing combinatorial search complexity from O(nd³) to O(nd²+d³). Empirical results show SPADE dramatically extends the scalability‑accuracy frontier, solving large‑scale problems with high structural accuracy on both synthetic and real‑world data.
By Hendrik Suhr, Sascha Xu, Jilles Vreeken
arXiv:2606. 23880v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: From climate teleconnections to gene regulation, modern time-series datasets encompass tens or hundreds of interacting variables, making causal discovery increasingly challenging.
By Mohammad Fesanghary, Abhinav Havaldar
arXiv:2609.31315v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Unobserved common causes are pervasive in real-world time series and can induce spurious associations that causal discovery methods mistake for direc...
By Mohammad Fesanghary
arXiv:2606. 03602v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery from observational data remains challenging due to the fundamental limitations of purely statistical methods, such as statistical distinguishability within equivalence classes and sensitivity to finite sample sizes.
By Bo Peng, Kaiwen Wu, Sirui Chen, Zhiheng Wang, Yu Qiao, Chaochao Lu
CausalArena is a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods in the era of foundation models. It unifies synthetic structural causal models (SCMs), semantically grounded SCMs, and formula‑grounded SCMs, while also including real‑world datasets for external validation. Experiments show that performance rankings vary widely across different SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not necessarily transfer to others.
By Zi-Rong Li, Si-Yang Liu, Tian-Zuo Wang, Han-Jia Ye
arXiv:2606. 17516v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery from observational data remains challenging due to the need to recover directed structure and latent confounding without interventions.
By Patrick Bl\"obaum, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian, Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan
arXiv:2608. 02877v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal discovery recovers directed structure from observational data and is increasingly used in clinical settings to support mechanism reasoning and fairness audits of predictive models.
By Nitish Nagesh, Elahe Khatibi, Thomas Dean Hughes, Mahdi Bagheri, Pratik Gajane, Amir M. Rahmani
arXiv:2606. 27154v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Root cause analysis (RCA) poses a holistic test of LLM agentic capabilities, such as long-context understanding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use.
By Aoyang Fang, Yifan Yang, Jin'ao Shang, Qisheng Lu, Junjielung Xu, Rui Wang, Songhan Zhang, Yuzhong Zhang, Boxi Yu, Pinjia He
arXiv:2607. 21680v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bridge infrastructure deteriorates gradually, yet its root causes---salt intrusion, freezing, fatigue cracking, and others---remain invisible to the naked eye.
By Takato Yasuno
The paper tackles selecting a cost‑constrained set of experiments that most effectively tighten bounds on a partially identifiable causal query. It formalizes this as the NP‑hard max‑potency problem, introduces efficient graphical pruning rules to reduce the search space, and demonstrates the approach on synthetic graphs and real NHANES data to estimate the effect of physical activity on diabetes.
By Tobias Maringgele, Jalal Etesami
arXiv:2606. 15390v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM agents can improve without weight updates by accumulating natural-language skills from experience, but current systems entrust every decision about which skills to keep and how to apply them to LLM judgment alone.
By Yixuan Wang, Yiyang Zhou, Yiming Liang, Congyu Zhang, Fuxiao Liu, Jiawei Zhou, Huaxiu Yao
CausalArena is a unified, evolvable benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods across diverse structural causal models (SCMs). It incorporates synthetic SCMs for controlled structural variation, semantic operational SCMs for human-auditable environments, and formula-grounded SCMs to test discovery under explicit scientific mechanisms, along with real-world datasets for external validity. Experiments show that performance rankings vary significantly across SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not generalize to others, especially in the context of causal discovery foundation models.