arXiv:2510. 20769v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management but remains challenging for both numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and data-driven models.
arXiv:2607. 16080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Precipitation nowcasting over the immediate 10-90 min period is important for flood management and real-time decision-making in urban regions.
The paper introduces Nested‑EAGLE, a 0.25° global weather model with a 6 km refinement over the contiguous United States, designed to merge short‑ and medium‑range forecasts into a single system. It shows lower mean‑squared error for near‑surface and low‑level variables over the U.S. compared to NOAA’s GFS and HRRR, while remaining competitive globally. Although precipitation forecasts are less skillful than HRRR’s deterministic training, Nested‑EAGLE delivers the most accurate storm‑location predictions at longer lead times, with blurred extrema.
arXiv:2607. 04862v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate extreme precipitation forecasting is critical for disaster mitigation but remains challenging for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models due to systemic intensity underestimation and spatial displacement.
The paper presents a graph-transformer AI weather model that is fine‑tuned with high‑resolution IMERG precipitation observations, moving beyond the traditional reliance on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. This approach yields up to a 19% improvement in medium‑range continuous ranked probability scores and a 57% better Brier skill score for extreme rainfall compared to leading operational models, while also excelling in tropical storm and drizzle prediction. The study demonstrates that directly incorporating observation‑based precipitation data into AI training can markedly enhance forecast accuracy, though physics‑based models still outperform for the heaviest events.
MAGPIE‑Net is a deep‑learning framework that directly maps multitemporal FY‑4A AGRI infrared and water‑vapor observations to short‑duration heavy‑rainfall warnings for irregular station neighborhoods. By embedding a geographically adaptive, differentiable grid‑to‑station mapping and training with station‑neighborhood event losses, the model outperforms traditional gridded‑precipitation baselines, achieving higher detection rates and longer lead times in 2023 warm‑season tests over China.
PCSDiff is a diffusion-based framework designed to correct systematic biases and enhance spatial resolution in medium-term (10‑day) precipitation forecasts. It uses a Precipitation Intensity‑aware Multi‑branch Decoder to mitigate dynamic multi‑day errors and a two‑phase conditional diffusion super‑resolution module to restore fine‑scale rainfall patterns. Evaluated over China, PCSDiff reduces RMSE by 16.1% and increases ACC by 13.9% compared to raw ECMWF forecasts, outperforming mainstream deep‑learning baselines and enabling low‑latency rolling forecasts for operational use.
arXiv:2606. 18436v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sparse point observations are increasingly available for precipitation nowcasting, but it is unclear how much they improve dense radar-field forecasts.
arXiv:2607. 11896v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecasting particulate matter (PM10) requires both station-scale accuracy and continuous spatial fields, especially during severe dust storms.
arXiv:2607. 05658v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), best known for positioning, also serve weather science, as atmospheric water vapour delays their signals.
MZ‑Rain is a moisture‑budget‑guided zero‑inflated sLSTM framework designed for station‑level precipitation nowcasting. It decomposes precipitation formation into moisture storage, transport, surface evaporation, and persistence pathways, each modeled by dedicated sLSTM branches, and employs an adaptive Tweedie strategy to handle the dataset’s severe zero inflation. Experiments across varied climates show MZ‑Rain outperforms strong baselines on metrics such as CSI, FAR, MSE, and MAE, especially for heavy precipitation events.
arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.